Research On The Impact Of Natural Disasters On Chinese Mutton Production And Prices

In the context of global climate change,natural disasters have increased significantly.The frequent occurrence of natural disasters has had a serious impact on production and life.Agriculture is often the first to bear the brunt because it is closely related to nature.The impact of natural disasters on agricultural production should not be underestimated.In addition,with the upgrading of the consumption structure of Chinese residents,animal husbandry in agriculture is playing an increasingly important role in ensuring food supply for residents,and the production of animal husbandry,especially the production of mutton sheep,is severely restricted by the environment.Therefore,exploring the impact and mechanism of natural disasters on mutton production and prices in my country is of great significance for maintaining the stability of the mutton market and promoting the healthy development of the mutton industry.This paper firstly examines the impact of natural disasters on mutton production based on the analysis of natural disasters and the current situation of mutton production.Through the grey correlation analysis of natural disasters and fluctuations in mutton production and the construction of a mutton production analysis model that introduces disaster variables,it is found that the impact of natural disasters on fluctuations in mutton production varies with disaster types,regions and time periods;comprehensive agricultural disasters The affected area had a negative but insignificant impact on mutton yield,and the disasteraffected area of agricultural comprehensive disasters had a significant negative impact on mutton yield.Afterwards,the stepwise regression method was used to examine the total effect of natural disasters on mutton prices and to test the mediating effect of supply and demand.The results showed that the increase in disaster intensity would push the price of mutton up;there is a mediating effect of natural disasters affecting prices by affecting supply and this effect is very strong,and the test does not find the mediating effect of demand.Finally,a vector autoregression model is constructed to study the industrial chain mechanism of natural disasters affecting the price of mutton,and it is found that natural disasters have different effects on the price of each link of the mutton industry chain,which have a positive impact on the price of mutton sheep and mutton prices;the price fluctuations in the upper and middle reaches It will affect the price of mutton through the transmission of the industrial chain.In response to the above conclusions,relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward,including focusing on key links,improving disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities;coordinating all forces to strengthen joint response to disasters;promoting the construction of pastoral areas and improving the disaster-resistance system in pastoral areas.