Research On International Natural Gas Market Price Fluctuation And China's Liquefied Natural Gas Import Safety Strategy

Natural gas as a rich and low-carbon green fossil energy,in the protection of national energy supply security at the same time to complete low-carbon transformation plays an important role.The shark gas revolution in the North American market has increased the supply of natural gas markets,the development of emerging markets and the upgrading of energy structures have stimulated demand,and the export of liquefied natural gas has contributed to the globalization of trade,making the global natural gas market increasingly complex.In recent years,with the rapid economic development,China's natural gas production has been unable to meet the demand,external dependence is getting higher and higher.In the current complex international natural gas situation,China's natural gas supply strategy is bound to be affected.The study of the law of price fluctuation in the international natural gas market,especially the study of the relationship between the volatility and spillover of the substitute crude oil,is helpful to understand the relationship between the crude oil and the natural gas price in the regional market of different natural gas pricing mechanism.To further understand the complex characteristics of the international natural gas market,accurately grasp the international natural gas market rules and future development trends in order to seek a reasonable natural gas pricing mechanism for China to promote the development of China's natural gas market to provide recommendations.At the same time,this paper analyzes the risk of natural gas supply in the international natural gas market and the analysis of the risks faced by the natural gas supply supply chain.It is helpful to provide a reasonable natural gas import strategy for our country to avoid the risk.This paper mainly analyzes the relationship between the natural gas price and the crude oil price in the three regional markets and the import safety of China's liquefied natural gas.This paper mainly analyzes the relationship between the natural gas price and the crude oil price in the three regional markets and the import safety of China's liquefied natural gas.It makes an in-depth study on the characteristics of the international natural gas market and the safety strategy of China's liquefied natural gas(LNG)import by using the theories and methods of econometrics and operational research.The main research work and conclusions are as follows:(1)Using VAR-GARCH(1,1)-BEKK measurement model,this paper analyzes the mutual influence of crude oil price and natural gas price in three major regional markets from different regional markets.The results show that there is a difference between the fluctuation of international crude oil price and the natural gas price in the three regional markets.Among the North American markets with the highest degree of natural gas market,there is no long-term equilibrium relationship and fluctuation spillover effect between the crude oil and the natural gas market,indicating that the impact of oil price fluctuation on North American natural gas import price is weak;there is strong between the crude oil and natural gas market in Europe Fluctuating conduction effect;Asian crude oil and natural gas market has a long-term equilibrium relationship and two-way volatility spillover effect,and the most powerful fluctuations.In other words: the higher the degree of natural gas liberalization of the market,the lower the price of natural gas by the impact of crude oil prices are also smaller.China's natural gas pricing mechanism is the price of alternative energy prices linked to the net return value of the market pricing,by the impact of crude oil price fluctuations.Therefore,to reduce this effect,better protection of natural gas supply,we need to further adjust the domestic natural gas pricing system,and gradually to the natural gas market,to compete to reduce the price of natural gas prices.(2)Based on the analysis of international natural gas market price fluctuation,this paper takes into account the three major risk factors of import cost risk,national political risk and shipping risk of importing countries in the process of liquefied natural gas supply,to build China's liquefied natural gas import safety multi-objective planning model to analyze China's liquefied natural gas import security strategy.The results show that compared with the actual import strategy.The results show that compared with the actual import strategy,increasing the demand for liquefied natural gas,the optimal import strategy will reduce imports of Oman,Qatar,Yemen,Algeria,Guinea and Nigeria,which have higher natural gas prices or higher maritime risks,and increase the transport distance and the lower price Lidida and Tobago,Russia,Malaysia and New Guinea.In addition,there are differences in the optimal import strategy when the emphasis on the three major risks is different: when the import costs are taken into account,the countries of import are concentrated in Trinidad and Tobago,Russia,Malaysia and New Guinea.Attention to the risk of maritime transport,the country of origin of imports increased in Indonesia.Attention to the country of origin countries political risk,the source of imports increased by Australia.