Research On Investment Risk Identification And Assessment Of My Country's Energy Projects Along The "Belt And Road

One belt,one road initiative has achieved fruitful results in the past ten years,thanks to the joint efforts of China and the countries along the route.China’s China China one belt,one road,and the total investment in China’s energy projects totaled 348 billion 100 million US dollars,accounting for 40% of China’s total investment.Under the active participation of the countries along the line,China has invested in railways,highways,ports and power facilities,and promoted the convergence of the "one belt and one road" initiative with the development strategies of the countries along the border.It has promoted the realization of the bright prospect of interconnection.However,investment is one of risks.One belt,one road initiative,involves international cooperation and long-term development.It is unavoidable to contradict some countries’ interests and short-term interests.At the same time,foreign investment in energy projects may have communication and coordination problems in scheme design,licensing procedures and feasibility studies.Factors such as bilateral and multilateral relations,government stability and policy changes,imperfect legal system and differences in ideas also make the investment process of energy projects face many uncertainties.In addition,due to the long cycle and large scale of transnational energy projects,is the construction of local infrastructure sufficient? Whether the economic development is stable or not will have a crucial impact on the project investment.Therefore,while the "Belt and Road" energy projects "go global",it is particularly important to accurately identify project investment risks and take effective risk prevention measures.Based on the investment background of China’s energy projects along the "Belt and Road",this paper selects three cases of Adama Wind Power Project in Ethiopia,Nanoujiang Project in Laos and Hongfeng Photovoltaic Power Generation Project in Vietnam as the basis to identify the risk factors of energy project investment along the "Belt and Road",clarify the logical relationship between various factors,and conduct quantitative analysis.Finally,taking the Kazakhstan photovoltaic project as an example,the gray network analysis method is used to evaluate,determine the project investment risk,and put forward specific preventive countermeasures from multiple angles according to the project investment risk governance model and resilience governance theory.The research finds that one is: first,one belt,one road,the source of investment risks of China’s energy projects is complex and diverse.According to three cases,there are 40 kinds of risk identified,including economic,political,social,legal,cultural,technological and environmental aspects,and exist in the various periods of project construction;Secondly,the key risk factors are mainly concentrated in four aspects: economic risk,political risk,legal risk and social risk.The specific risk factors include 8 items: exchange rate risk,inflation risk,interest rate risk,tax risk,political stability,relations with China,imperfect system and imperfect infrastructure.The results are consistent with the actual situation;Finally,one belt,one road,the two countries,bilateral agreements,the risk management mechanism,the risk management level and the public diplomacy to avoid risks are proposed.