Supply Chain Coordination Of Seasonal Products With Spot Market Under Yield And Demand Uncertainty

With the advances of high-technology and the development of mobile internet,especially the arrival of individual IP and short video sharing economy,user requirements present the features of the instantaneous change and diversification,and the update iteration speed of products are further accelerating,and the market shares of products characterized by seasonal needs increase remarkably,which cause that the demands are difficult to forecast accurately.The supply chains operating on such seasonal products generally face random yield caused by the factors of artificiality,nature or product attribute.Double marginalization induced by yield and demand uncertainty is mainly responsible for the low performance and wasting of resources for the supply chains of seasonal products.However,the issues of the salvage value or replenishment certainly caused by the indeterminacy of yield and demand link the contract market to the spot market.Considering two scenarios with and without spot market participation,this paper takes two-stage supply chain for seasonal products composed of an individual manufacturer and an individual retailer as a study case,and further make model building and study decision-making and coordination of supply chain with random yield and demand under two scenarios.When spot markets participate in the situation I,this study considers that the manufacturer trade with the spot market because of underproduction or overproduction due to uncertainty,and establishes an idealized centralized decision-making model and a decentralized decision making model based on wholesale price contract respectively,and further determine Nash equilibrium solution when demand obeys normal distribution.By contrast analysis,wholesale price contracts cannot coordinate the supply chain with random yield and demand involving spot market,and design compensation and two-part tariff contract for perfect coordination of supply chain.For the situation II without spot market participation,there is no spot market to make up for shortages caused by underproduction or to deal with surpluses caused by overproduction.In this case,this paper also set up centralized decision model and decentralized decision model based on wholesale price contract.Based on these two models,this study research the optimal decision and profit of yield and demand uncertainty without the participation of spot market,and design hybrid risk sharing contract to coordinate the supply chain and discuss the process of contract coordination,and further verifies propositions by numerical simulation.using numerical simulation analysis,this paper compare the variables and profit changes of supply chain decision in situation I and II,and consequently discusses the impact of the spot market on the supply chain of yield and demand uncertainty.The result of research shows the opinions as follows:(1)The spot market effectively hedges the risk of uncertain yield and demand,and alleviates the negative impact of uncertain yield acting on the retailer and uncertain demand acting on the manufacturer,but it is possible to reduce the overall profit of supply chain under contract,with price movements of the spot market.(2)When the spot market is involved,fluctuations in output do not affect retailers’ orders or profits based on the wholesale price contract decentralized decision model.When the output uncertainty is greater,the total profit of supply chain with spot market participation is significantly greater than that without spot market participation.(3)In the situation of uncertain environment of yield and demand,wholesale price contracts can not effectively coordinate seasonal commodity supply chains facing double uncertainties whether or not the spot market is involved.(4)The compensation and two-part tariff contract designed in this paper can perfectly coordinate the yield and demand uncertainty supply chain involving spot market.(5)The hybrid risk sharing contract based on promotional compensation contract can perfectly coordinate the supply chain with uncertain production and demand without the participation of spot market,and provides the conditions to realize the coordination.