| In the context of the WTO’s multilateral mechanism being "overheaded",regionalism represented by free trade agreements and free trade zones has begun to rise.In order to improve the level of openness,China actively promotes FTA negotiations and actively builds Pilot Free Trade Zones(PFTZs).The Guangdong PFTZ,which is one of the second batch of PFTZs in China,overlaps with the national strategy of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area urban agglomeration(GBA).The three areas of the PFTZ,Guangzhou,Shenzhen,and Zhuhai,will be affected by the implementation of policies,which will have economic growth effect on Mother Cities and spillover effects on economic growth on other cities in the GBA.This spillover effect may be a positive radiation effect or a negative siphon effect.Narrowing the gap in the level of economic growth between regions is an important part of realizing the coordinated development of regional economy.Examining whether the PFTZ policy promotes the common growth of the regional economy and achieves the goal of coordinated regional development in the construction of the GBA is of great significance for guiding the healthy development of the PFTZ and leading the opening of urban agglomerations with high standards.In order to analyze the impact of the establishment of the PFTZ on the economic growth of the resident cities and other cities in the GBA,this article first combs the development status of the Guangdong PFTZ and the economic development status of the cities in the GBA,and analyzes the mechanism of the Guangdong PFTZ affecting the economic growth of the cities in the GBA;then,using the quarterly GDP year-on-year real growth rate data of 21 cities in Guangdong Province and Hong Kong and Macao from the first quarter of 2011 to the first quarter of 2018,combined with the regression control method improved by domestic scholars in recent years,this paper tests the economic growth effect of the establishment of the PFTZ on the resident cities,and uses the CCEMG method to evaluate the heterogeneous spillover effect of economic growth on other cities in the GBA.The full text research mainly draws the following conclusions:First,the Guangdong PFTZ has achieved rapid development through continuous institutional innovations in trade,investment,finance,immigration,intellectual property protection,and the rule of law with its excellent economic foundation,transportation conditions,and policy environment.Among the three areas,Qianhai&Shekou area of Shenzhen is a leader in establishing new enterprises,promoting trade,foreign investment,and financial industry development with only a small area.Second,the development gap between cities in the GBA is still obvious.Coordinating regional development is a new task for the construction of the PFTZ.Among the GBA cities surrounding the Free Trade Zone,the Mainland is mostly large manufacturing cities,and Hong Kong and Macao take the tertiary industry as the pillar.The PFTZ that focuses on cultivating modern service industries may radiate to the mainland and siphon Hong Kong and Macao.Third,the policies of the Guangdong PFTZ have significantly promoted the economic growth of the resident cities,and on average each quarter,the total GDP year-on-year real growth rate of the three resident cities has increased by 1.95%.Fourth,the establishment of the Guangdong PFTZ only has a significant spillover effect on Dongguan.For every 1%increase in the effect of the PFTZ on local economic growth,the quarterly GDP year-on-year growth rate of Dongguan will increase by 0.84%.Hong Kong and Macao regions did not show a significant negative effect in terms of value.Based on the above research results,this paper puts forward targeted policy suggestions for the Guangdong PFTZ to better promote the economic growth of cities in the GBA from three aspects:promoting the sustainable and high-quality development of the Guangdong PFTZ;enhancing the ability of Guangdong PFTZ to coordinate regional development;create an environment more conducive to the spread of PFTZ dividends. |
