The Study On Export Potential And Efficiency Of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area’s Goods Trade

Firstly,this paper analyses the total export volume characteristics of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area,and then makes a comparative analysis of Guangdong,Hong Kong and Macao from the aspects of total export volume,degree of commodity processing,factor intensity,export destination and competitiveness of commodity export.It is concluded that the export dependence and competitiveness of Guangdong Province are extremely unbalanced,and the export structure of Hong Kong and Macao has been continuously optimized in recent years.Since 2010,although the total export volume of commodities in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area has been growing,the growth rate has slowed down significantly,and new trade opportunities and potential need to be explored.Then,based on the panel data of eight-year commodity exports from 59 countries in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model,this paper calculates the export potential and efficiency between GuangdongHong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and their major trading partners,and analyses the influencing factors of export inefficiency.It is found that the export efficiency between Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area and most countries is low and the potential of export is high.The ten countries with the lowest export efficiency,and the highest untapped export potential are Austria(0.039),Finland(0.041),Romania(0.059),Greece(0.060),Denmark(0.061),Portugal(0.062),Sweden(0.067),Myanmar(0.077),Turkey(0.078)and Iran(0.080).Regionally,the trade efficiency of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to Nordic,Southern,Eastern,South and North Africa is low,and the potential of undeveloped exports is high.Through regression analysis of the influencing factors of export inefficiency,it can be concluded that the entry into WTO of importing countries and the sign of FTA with China will improve the export efficiency of Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area to these country.The bigger the liner transport connectivity index is,the smaller the trade resistance is,and the higher the trade efficiency is.The higher the weighted average applicable tax rate of importing countries and the higher the degree of economic liberalization,the higher the trade efficiency.Guangdong-Hong KongMacao Greater Bay Area can exert the potential of export trade,enhance the efficiency of export trade and realize the coordination and sustainable development of export trade in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area by increasing the diversity of export destinations,promoting the export of high-tech commodities through linkage with the Mainland,accelerating the circulation of currency liberalization,improving the degree of trade facilitation and giving full play to the regional advantages of Zhaoqing and Jiangmen.