| With the maturity of technology,a new era of big data was brought since the century.The further combination of finance and technology had gradually become the focus of China’s development.Financial development should always persist in serving the real economy.This paper constructed a double fixed effect model based on panel data and a prediction model based on mixed frequency data in order to explain the influential mechanism between the development of finance and real economy under the background of digital transformation.Furthermore,studying the feasibility of predicting the growth of real economy(quarterly)based on relevant indicators of financial development(monthly)with a higher frequency data.Firstly,this paper discussed the fluctuations of the efficiency of financial services to real economy in various provinces.It showed that technological progress played a very important role.In order to illustrate the influencing mechanism of financial development on real economy,this paper studied the intermediary role of digital finance in the impact of financial development on real economy development based on panel data of provinces.Based on analysis of the influencing mechanism of financial development on real economy,the growth rate of quarterly real economy was predicted based on three dimensions of financial development.Loans balance of financial institutions,insurance premium income and stock market value were used to measure the development of financial markets.FIR was used to measure financial structure.Loan-to-deposit ratio was used to measure financial efficiency.The growth rates of these monthly indicators were used to construct mixed-frequency data models.Besides using the MIDAS-AR to predict the growth rate of quarterly real economy,this paper constructed a MS-MIDAS-AR model with regime transformation due to the nonlinear structural characteristics of the growth rate of real economy.Making use of the MSMIDAS-AR could also monitor the development of real economy.The results showed that financial development had direct effect on real economy.What’s more,the indirect effect from financial development to real economy with digital finance as the intermediary variable also existed,and digital finance played a partial intermediary role.In recent years,the development of digital finance could positively promote the development of real economy,and its masking effect inhibited the reverse effect of financial development on real economy,which showed that digital finance could alleviate the current situation that financial development deviated from the development of real economy.The predictions based on mixed-frequency data models could avoid the loss of data information caused by data frequency transformation.The results of predictions showed the validity and relative superiority of the mixed-frequency data models in predicting the growth rate of real economy,especially MS-MIDAS-AR.What’s more,The real economy could be monitored based on MS-MIDAS-AR and its development could be divided into two regimes,including a rapid growth regime and a steady growth regime. |
