Research On Risk Evaluation And Early Warning Management Of Fresh Agricultural Products Supply Chain In LW Company

In the process of China’s reform and opening up,the importance of the "three rural issues" can not be ignored,the overall development of China’s economy,but also closely related to the fundamental interests of the vast majority of China’s farmers,from 2004 to the present,has been the central No.1 document hot issues.2022 October,the 20 th Party Congress report clearly pointed out that efforts to enhance the supply chain resilience and security,which has put forward higher requirements for the development of the supply chain.The long production cycle in the agricultural industry chain,which is greatly affected by factors such as climate and water resources,and is cross-regional,with a long and mixed supply chain,these characteristics have put forward higher requirements for the management and development of the agricultural industry chain,and require enhanced coordination and cooperation to improve the quality and safety of agricultural products and promote the sustainable development of the agricultural industry chain.Fresh agricultural products,as one of them,are more fragile in the supply chain due to their easy loss and higher requirements on environment and time,while factors such as China’s imperfect cold chain infrastructure construction and relatively lagging cold chain technology have also increased the risks of fresh agricultural products supply chain.Therefore,various enterprises,scholars and experts involved in the supply chain have started to conduct in-depth research on the risk management of fresh agricultural products supply chain and advance the research progress by combining theory and practice.Although certain achievements have been made in the research of fresh agricultural products supply chain risk,relatively little research has been conducted on specific enterprises,and continued attention and in-depth research on fresh agricultural products supply chain risk management is needed to reduce risks and improve the stability and resilience of the supply chain.In the context of increasingly fierce market competition,the competition among the node enterprises in the fresh agricultural products supply chain is gradually transformed into the competition of the whole supply chain,and the risks faced are complex and variable,so it is especially important to establish a supply chain early warning system.Using the fieldwork method and SCOR model,the risk of fresh produce supply chain of LW company is discussed and analyzed in all aspects,and the risk factors in each link of the supply chain are sorted out in detail and their risk characteristics are summarized to lay the foundation for identifying the risk factors.Based on the principle of index selection,six aspects of planning process,procurement and supply,warehousing and distribution,network information,collaborative relationship and external environment were identified as risk influencing factors,and the importance of the indexes was checked through questionnaires.21 risk indicators were finally selected as the factors of fresh produce supply chain risk of LW company,and the corresponding evaluation index system was established.The risk index weights were determined by using AHP-entropy weight method,and the risk evaluation model was constructed by using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to quantitatively analyze the risk level of the company.The study concludes that the overall risk level of LW’s fresh produce supply chain is average,but it is still far from the requirement of low risk.The external environment risk ranks first among the risk indicators,followed by procurement and supply risk,then planning process risk,storage and distribution risk and network information risk,and collaboration relationship risk is the least.According to the risk evaluation results,the supply chain risks are classified as early warning and countermeasures are proposed with targeted suggestions to deal with different risk links and risks under different alert levels.Systematically exploring and evaluating the fresh produce supply chain risk of LW company has greater practical significance in fresh produce supply chain risk management and control.