| The influence of a dissertation reflects the scale and depth of the research scope activities it engages in during a specific period of time,and it implies the influence of the dissertation theory,the impact brought by innovation and the impact of academic results on social values.The quality of research results is a necessary condition for the rapid development of the discipline,and researchers should always pay attention to the latest published papers when conducting scientific research,and reading influential papers can help scholars grasp the most cutting-edge a scientific development trend,while the exploration of the influence of the paper plays a positive role in the development of the paper itself.Therefore,it is important and necessary to explore the factors influencing the influence of papers and the development pattern.In this study,we choose China Knowledge Network as the data source of the database sample,and analyze each factor in the three dimensions of journals,authors,and dissertations by using bibliometric and gray models for two data samples of 2393 papers from key core journals and 2947 papers from all core journals in the field of library intelligence from 2013 to 2020.Firstly,when analyzing the current status of research,this paper uses Cite Space and VOSviewer visualization tools to draw charts and knowledge maps,and describes the corresponding metrics of the literature through analysis,such as the distribution of literature time,the frequency of citations,and the interrelationship between authors,research institutions,and grants;secondly,in analyzing the influencing factors,a combination of gray correlation analysis and hierarchical analysis is used to Finally,by predicting the frequency of citations,we summarized and analyzed the future development trend of library and intelligence journal papers.The study found that,firstly,in terms of journals,although the impact factor is increasing,the number of publications and citation frequency of papers are in a decreasing trend;in terms of authors,it is found that the top five scholars in the number of publications are mostly famous experts in the field of library and intelligence,and most of the research contents are focused on librarianship,while the analysis of the authors’ institutions shows that universities are still the main force of research in the field of library and intelligence in China.The analysis of papers shows that the frequency of key words of library and big data is relatively high in the field of library intelligence,which echoes the results of the distribution analysis of highly cited papers,and the overall rate of thesis fund papers in each year is also on the rising trend.Next,we analyzed the influencing factors affecting the influence of library intelligence journal papers,and used eight quantifiable indicators in the index system of influencing factors: the number of authors,the gender of the first author,the title of the first author,the institution of the first author,the number of keywords,the number of funds,the number of references,and the number of downloads as independent variables,so as to establish a model of influencing factors,and ranked the importance of the relevant influencing factors Based on the experimental results,we conclude that among the eight quantifiable indicators,the number of downloads,keywords and authors are the three most important factors;and through the gray prediction model,the experimental results show that the citation frequency of library intelligence journal papers will be in a relatively stable downward trend in the future.Finally,the paper characteristics and the impact prediction model are valid and feasible. |
