Characteristics And Trend Prediction Of Population Migration In Sichuan Province

Population problem has always been the focus of social attention,among which population migration is the wind vane reflecting the situation of market economy.In recent years,with the increase of labor costs in the East of China,the population mitigation strategy began to be implemented in mega cities due to population pressure,and the western development strategy formulated by our country has enabled the western region to receive key state support,and to accelerate the pace of economic development,which makes the population flowed out of Sichuan for employment or seeking better development in the early years begin to return.Based on this background,in order to find out the population migration characteristics and future migration trends in Sichuan Province and its 18 prefecture level cities and 3 autonomous prefectures in more detail,in this paper,Correspondence Analysis Method is used to mine the migration laws of populations with different characteristics,and to compare the migration differences between cities in Sichuan Province from the perspective of statistics.Based on the result of Correspondence Analysis and the Qualitative Research Method of literature analysis,ten factors that may affect the population migration in Sichuan Province are selected as independent variables,and the migration rate of population is identified as the dependent variable for quantitative analysis.In the paper,a multiple regression model is established,also is the methods of stepwise regression based on the aim of optimizing the former model.In order to provide more preference,Elastic Net regression is used to determine the final influencing factors.The result shows the development level of tertiary industry and medical development level are the main factors affecting the population migration in Sichuan Province.Secondly,a short-term prediction of the population migration rate of Sichuan province is considered by the univariate ARIMA model and the multivariable series VAR model based on the time series data.It is predicted that the population migration rate of Sichuan Province will be positive,and a certain degree of population migration inflow will still be exist in the next few years.Finally,some policy suggestions according to the main results above and the situation of Sichuan Province are made in the paper.