Analysis And Research On The Influencing Factors Of China’s Fertility Rate Under The Background Of The New Three-Child Policy

In the last century,China’s population grew too much and too fast,which to a certain extent affected China’s economic development and the improvement of people’s living standards,and also affected the development of China’s population quality.Based on the basic national conditions at that time,since 1953,China has gradually proposed birth control,family planning pilot,and comprehensive family planning policy to reduce population growth.During the implementation of the family planning policy,China’s total fertility rate declined rapidly in the 1970s and slowly in the 1980s,and the fertility rate was changed at the end of the last century.However,with the change of fertility rate,the age structure of China’s population has changed,and the population problem has become increasingly prominent.According to the data of the seventh census,China’s population aged 0-14 years accounts for 17.95%,and the proportion of the elderly aged 65 and above has reached 13.5%.The population structure has been in a serious state of aging and fewer children.The aging population with fewer children will lead to a decrease in the supply of school-age labor,an increasing financial burden,a delay in the pace of industrial upgrading,a profound change in the allocation of economic resources and the distribution pattern of national income,and then affect the economy,society,public facilities and welfare system.In order to actively respond to the aging population,China has gradually opened up its fertility policy.In November 2011,all localities fully implemented the "two only child have two children" policy.In 2014,China began to implement the "one only child have two children" policy.On January 1,2016,China officially implemented the "all have two children" policy.However,a series of cold weather did not usher in the expected baby boom.In May 2021,China further proposed the open three child policy and the construction of supporting measures.Whether the three-child policy will still be cold,and what measures should be taken to avoid it.In this context,the purpose of studying the influencing factors of China’s fertility rate is to find out the internal causes of the continuous decline of fertility rate,put forward targeted policy recommendations,promote the promotion of China’s fertility rate and improve China’s population structure.This research has important practical significance.In order to study this problem,this paper analyzes the current situation of China’s fertility rate and the problems brought by the current situation from two aspects:the whole and demography.It finds that China changed from an ultra-high fertility rate to a low fertility rate in the last century.It is analyzed that the transformation process at this stage is mainly affected by the family planning policy.After entering the 21st century,the fertility rate has remained stable at a low level on the whole,but on the premise of overall stability,the one-child fertility rate has continued to decline and the two-child fertility rate has continued to rise.After the comprehensive two-child policy,the two-child fertility rate has exceeded the one-child fertility rate.It is analyzed that there are other factors besides the fertility policy that affect the fertility rate at this stage.On the basis of this analysis,after further analyzing the factors that may affect the fertility rate from the aspects of economy,society,population and policy,collecting relevant factor data,establishing ridge regression,Lasso regression and elastic network regression models for empirical analysis,and finally selecting the elastic network regression model for economic meaning analysis by comparing the fitting effect.The analysis results show that:(1)the per capita disposable income of residents,the labor participation rate,the male female ratio,the single two child policy,the double one two child policy,and the comprehensive two child policy can promote the increase of the fertility rate.(2)The average sales price of commercial housing,parenting cost,dependency ratio,marriage registration,age at first marriage,average years of education,and COVID-19 have a restraining effect on the increase of fertility.(3)Although the single two child policy,the double one two child policy and the comprehensive two child policy have promoted the fertility rate,the promotion effect is not obvious.It is inferred that China may fall into the low fertility trap.