| In recent years,economic globalization and global trade continue to develop deeply.With the steady development of trade in goods of various countries,the prosperity of trade in services has gradually become one of the symbols of a country’s developed international trade or even its developed economy.Under the rapid development of export trade,the openness of Chinese service markets is also increasing,and the proportion of service trade in the toal trade is gradually increasing.Therefore,how to measure a country’s service trade competitiveness and how to improve a country’s service trade advantage has become a hot topic for many scholars to study.At the same time,the aging degree of our population has been deepening since the end of last century.In addition,the low fertility rate,the increasing dependency ratio of the elderly population,and the proportion of the working-age population in the total population are gradually shrinking,the aging population also affects the development of a country’s industry and trade from many aspects.Previous studies on population aging and international trade mainly focus on the field of goods trade,while there is still a certain gap in the field of service trade.The paper mainly studies the impact of population aging on the export competitiveness of service trade,proposes that population aging affects through labor supply and human capital,and finally verifies the influence mechanism through empirical analysis.The paper studies the impact of population aging on the export competitiveness of service trade,mainly through the following thoughts: Firstly,the paper collates the literature related to population aging and export competitiveness of service trade,summarizes the influence of population aging on economic growth and service trade export competitiveness of the existing views and comments.Secondly,the paper clarifies the concepts related to population aging,analyzes the current situation and characteristics of population aging in 26 countries including China,Philippines and Finland,and measures the export competitiveness of service trade of these countries.Thirdly,combined with the traditional comparative advantage theory,service trade comparative advantage theory,competitive advantage theory and the existing literature,the paper analyzes the aging of population affects the export competitiveness of service trade in two ways — labor supply,human capital,and puts forward the corresponding hypothesis.Then,based on the transnational panel data from 2010 to 2019,the fixed-effect model is used to empirically test the influence of population aging on the competitiveness of service trade,and the model is established to test whether the influence path of labor supply and human capital is valid.Based on the results of theoretical analysis and empirical research,the paper draws the corresponding conclusions: First of all,the impact of population aging on the export competitiveness of service trade is significantly negative,and the heterogeneity analysis shows that the impact of developing countries is greater than that of developed countries.Secondly,population aging has a significant negative correlation with labor supply.Population aging will weaken a country’s export competitiveness of service trade by reducing labor supply.Thirdly,there is a significant negative correlation between aging and human capital.Population aging will weaken a country’s export competitiveness of service trade by reducing human capital.The paper combines the analysis conclusion with our national conditions to provide feasible policy suggestions for our country to promote service trade development and economic growth. |
