An Analysis Of The Impact Of Aging Population On Export Competitiveness Of Manufacturing Industry

As the main industry of national economy and international trade of China,the development of manufacturing industry is of great significance to the enhancement of international competitiveness and national status of China.China has always been relying on its cheap labor force in the development of manufacturing industry.However,under the background of aging population,China’s labor force market is now under attack.How to maintain and improve the advantage of manufacturing industry in international market has become an urgent problem to be solved.The innovations of this paper are mainly reflected in research perspectives,research methods and materials.Using mediation effect model can make the influence mechanism of aging population on export competitiveness of manufacturing industry more clearly.The body of this paper consists of six chapters.The first chapter mainly discusses the background and significance of topic,research methods,and innovations.The second chapter of the basic concepts and literature review is the research foundation of this paper,which is composed of three subsections.The first part is about the concepts related to aging population,containing the definition of birth rate,death rate,natural growth rate,dependency ratio,age structure and aging population.The second part outlines the definition and measurement standard of export competitiveness.The definition is discussed from three levels: country,industry and enterprise,and the measurement standard covers four methods of Revealed Comparative Advantage Index(RCA),Trade Competitiveness Index(TC),International Market Share(MS),and Export Permeation Rate(EPR).And RCA will be used for empirical analysis in the follow-up.The third part is the literature review,including analysis of economic effect of aging population,the factors influencing export competitiveness of manufacturing industry,and the influence of aging population on export competitiveness of manufacturing industry.In the third chapter,the influence mechanism of aging population on the export competitiveness of manufacturing industry is analyzed on the basis of four theoretical foundations of Ricardo Theory,Heckscher-Olin Theory,Rybczynski Theorem and the Theory of Competitive Advantage;as well as three action paths of labor supply,labor cost,and labor quality.Chapter four makes some discussions on the status quo,characteristics and causes of aging population,as well as the current level of export competitiveness of the manufacturing industry in China.The fifth chapter is about the empirical analysis.Three mediation variables are determined through collating literatures,which are labor supply,labor cost,and labor quality.During empirical analysis,fixed effect model and mediation effect model are utilized to analyze the influence mechanism of aging population on the export competitiveness of manufacturing industry.Finally,it is concluded that the aging population is inversely associated with labor supply and labor quality,but directly associated with labor cost.Besides,labor supply,labor cost,and labor quality all have positive correlations with export competitiveness of manufacturing industry.In a word,the final conclusion is made that the overall impact of aging population on the export competitiveness of manufacturing industry is currently positive.In the last chapter of this paper,the final conclusions and relevant suggestions are summarized.In order to promote the improvement of China’s manufacturing export competitiveness,suggestions are given in three aspects: increasing effective labor supply,improving population quality,and promoting the enhancement of independent R&D and innovation of enterprises.