Study On The Influence Of Population Aging And Higher Education Expansion On Industrial Structure Upgrading

Since the reform and opening up,China has counted on the demographic dividend for rapid economic and social development and achieved great success,but the declining birth rate and aging population in the past two decades have become important reasons affecting our economic development.China started the expansion of college entrance examinations in 1999,which greatly promoted the development of higher education and led to the rapid expansion of the number of people receiving higher education,which contributed to the rapid economic development of China in the early 21 st century.The aging population is an important national condition in China,and in the process of the current economic shift to high-quality development,industrial structure upgrading has become an important driving force for economic development.Under the dual pressure of population aging and achieving high-quality economic development,exploring the impact of Chinese aging population on industrial structure upgrading in the context of higher education expansion not only helps clarify the relationship between population aging and industrial structure upgrading,but also explores the impact of higher education expansion on industrial structure upgrading.It also helps to give some reference for the policy formulation of government departments.In this paper,we have compiled domestic and foreign literature on population aging,higher education expansion and industrial structure upgrading.The effect of population aging on industrial structure is very complex,and it can cause certain influence on industrial structure upgrading from both the demand level and the supply level.We analyze the impact of population aging on industrial structure upgrading from three aspects of consumer demand,labor supply and capital supply,and the moderating role of higher education expansion in it and put forward the research hypothesis;then analyze the current situation of population aging,higher education expansion,industrial structure and their development characteristics;then establish an econometric regression model empirical test,combine with Chinese actual data to Then,an econometric regression model was established to test the regression of panel data fixed effects model,robustness test and panel data threshold model to verify the inhibitory effect of population aging on industrial structure upgrading and the positive regulating effect of higher education expansion.The main conclusions of this paper are:(1)Population aging has become an important factor limiting the upgrading of Chinese industrial structure during the study cycle.(2)The expansion of higher education can improve the quality of labor force by enhancing the level of human capital,and thus reduce the negative effects of population aging on the upgrading of industrial structure.(3)The heterogeneity test shows different characteristics in terms of the role of population aging on industrial structure upgrading.For this reason,The countermeasures and suggestions of promoting industrial structure upgrading at national level are put forward in China from the supply and demand sides,such as improving the level of social security for the elderly,increasing the investment in the elderly industry,insisting on improving the development of science and education,improving the fertility and retirement policies in China,promoting industrial development,and basing on national conditions and making gradual progress.