Research On The Impact Of Population Age Structure Changes On Residents’ Consumption Upgrading In Shandong Province

In August 2021,the Ministry of Commerce proposed to expand domestic demand and take multiple measures to upgrade consumption.As the main body of consumption,people in different age stages have different consumption motivation and consumption ability.When the age structure of population changes,consumption level and consumption structure will inevitably change.In 2021,the seventh national population census data will be released,and the Chinese population will present new characteristics: the growth rate of the total population will slow down,the total number of newly born population will decline,the fertility level will decline,and the population aging situation will be severe.Shandong Province,as a "populous province",the population situation will also be severe,the working-age population will continue to decline,and the elderly population will rise in large numbers.Therefore,in the new era,it is of great significance to fully grasp the changing trend of population age structure in Shandong Province and explore the impact of population age structure on the upgrading of residents’ consumption to improve the level of residents’ consumption,promote the optimization and upgrading of consumption structure,and then drive the high-quality development of regional economy in Shandong Province.Firstly,this paper systematically combs domestic and foreign relevant research literature on population age structure and consumption.Based on relevant concepts and theoretical basis of population age structure and consumption,this paper analyzes the influence mechanism of population age structure on residents’ consumption upgrading.In this paper,the child dependency ratio and the elderly dependency ratio are taken as variables to measure the population age structure.Consumption upgrading is divided into two aspects,namely consumption level and consumption structure,to analyze the qualitative problems of consumption expansion,collect and sort out the relevant data of population age structure and consumption in Shandong Province from2000 to 2021,and conduct regression analysis to obtain empirical results.The empirical results showed that the increase of child dependency ratio in Shandong Province inhibited the improvement of consumption level and the optimization of consumption structure,and the increase of child dependency ratio inhibited the upgrading of residents’ consumption.The increase of old-age dependency ratio can not only improve the level of consumption,but also promote the transformation of consumption structure to a higher level,and the increase of old-age dependency ratio will promote the upgrading of consumption.In order to understand the impact of the change of population age structure on the consumption upgrading of urban and rural residents in more detail,this paper carries out the regression of the consumption of urban and rural residents respectively and obtains the empirical results.The results show that the impact of the change of population age structure on the consumption upgrading of urban and rural residents is different:the increase of child dependency ratio promotes the consumption upgrading of urban residents and inhibits the consumption upgrading of rural residents;The increase of old-age dependency ratio has a positive effect on the consumption upgrading of urban and rural residents.From the perspective of subdivided consumption structure in urban and rural areas,the effects of increasing child support ratio on subsistence,enjoyment and development consumption of urban and rural residents are the same,the same and the opposite direction.The increase of old-age dependency ratio has the same effect on subsistence,enjoyment and development consumption of urban and rural residents,but has different effects on specific consumption types.In addition,control variables such as the proportion of value-added of tertiary industry,average propensity to consume,unemployment rate,urban-rural income ratio and housing insurance coverage rate will also have an important impact on residents’ consumption.Finally,according to the actual situation of Shandong Province,the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are put forward: starting from the demand side,improving residents’ consumption willingness and ability to promote consumption upgrade,innovating consumption concept,rationally guiding consumption,perfecting income distribution system,improving residents’ income level,perfecting social security system,and releasing the vitality of consumption;Starting from the supply side,we should promote the supply-side structural reform in new consumption areas to promote consumption upgrading,mainly ensuring the effective supply of new consumer goods,promoting the continuous upgrading of physical consumption,developing the children’s market and the silver market,and improving the mismatch between supply and demand,fostering a new pattern of deeply integrated development of culture and tourism.