An Empirical Research About The Influence Of Population Aging On The Level And Structure Of Residents' Consumption In Shandong Province

The issue of the impact of population aging on consumption is a hot topic of current concern.Research at home and abroad tends to analyze the relationship between the overall level of aging and consumer spending.But due to the differences between the level of aging and economic level among regions,there may still be some differences between the existing research conclusions and the actual situation.Based on the above problems,this paper takes Shandong Province as the research object to analyze the impact of aging on consumption in a specific economic region.Since Shandong Province entered the aging society in 1994,the degree has gradually intensified.The elderly dependency ratio has been on the rise,and the total elderly population has been increasing.Residents' consumption levels have shown a steady growth trend.At present,basic consumption is still the main form of consumption,and service consumption is still in a secondary position.Therefore,the province's consumption structure still has room for further optimization.This will pave the way for the empirical analysis.Based on the data of aging and consumption expenditure in Shandong Province from 2000 to 2018,this paper makes an empirical analysis on the specific impact of population aging on consumption expenditure in Shandong Province.Firstly,VAR model is used to analyzethe impact of aging on the consumption level of residents in Shandong Province.At the same time,the influence of aging on various consumption expenditure items is analyzed through the gray correlation degree.The results show that: first,the population aging will significantly increase the per capita consumption expenditure of Shandong Province in the short term;Second,in the long term,the impact of aging on per capita consumption expenditure in Shandong Province will gradually change from negative to positive with the increase of lag period,and the influence coefficient will gradually weaken;Third,with the development of the aging population in Shandong Province,the consumption concept of the elderly population has changed.The demand of the elderly for health care,housing and clothing is gradually increasing,which promotes the change of the consumption structure of Shandong province.The research of this paper will be helpful to analyze the aging and economic society development of Shandong Province and other regions in China.