Research On Internet Rumor Propagation Of Emergencies Based On Improved Infectious Disease Model

With the rapid development of Chinese society and economy,the people’s life has become more diverse and complex,and social contradictions are increasingly prominent.Our society has entered a period of high incidence of emergencies.With the rapid development of Internet technology,once an emergency is reported by network media or netizens,it is easy to generate online rumors.Internet rumors are accompanied by emergencies,which can disturb people’s mentality in the process of emergencies.Meanwhile,they also seriously affect the normal order of social life and bring severe challenges to government governance.Therefore,it is of great practical significance to extract the characteristics of emergencies,deeply explore the spreading process and influence mechanism of rumors in emergencies,and then propose solutions to the governance of Internet rumors.This paper takes Internet rumors of emergencies as the research object,analyzes the stage characteristics of the evolution of Internet rumors of emergencies,makes a qualitative analysis of the influencing factors in the evolution process of rumors,and explores the propagation mechanism of Internet rumors of emergencies.First of all,based on the propagation characteristics of Internet rumors in emergencies and combined with the life cycle theory,the evolution stages of Internet rumors in emergencies are divided and the propagation characteristics of rumors in each stage are analyzed.Then,events that have been confirmed as rumors are selected to construct the case set studied in this paper through data processing and index selection,and fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis(fs QCA)is used to explore the specific influence of various influencing factors on rumor propagation.Secondly,combined with the results of configuration analysis,considering the topic attention and rumor refuting strategy,the S2IDR-based network rumor propagation model of emergencies was constructed,and the propagation threshold of the model was set.Finally,a simulation experiment was used to simulate the rumor propagation process.The rumor propagation process under different parameters was discussed from three perspectives: model equilibrium point analysis,transmission process analysis and model comparison analysis,and the difference between the simulation results and the traditional infectious disease model was compared to discuss the rationality of the model.The empirical analysis results show that:(1)According to the life cycle theory,the evolution of emergency online rumors can be divided into three stages: rumor generation,rumor propagation and rumor extinction.If rumor refutation is inefficient and lagging,group polarization phenomenon may occur in the network,and the evolution process may develop into four stages: generation period,propagation period,polarization period and extinction period.(2)In the analysis of influencing factors of Internet rumors in emergencies,four factors including topic attention,event type,communication channel and rumor refutation strategy were considered.The analysis results divided the rumor configuration into two categories.(3)Through control variables,it is found that the propagation threshold R0 is an important parameter to determine the stable propagation of online rumors in emergencies,and the increase of R0 prolongs the duration of online rumor propagation in emergencies.The simulation analysis found that the separation of spreaders with different attention could more efficiently and timely lock the target group of spreading emergency online rumors,and different intervention measures could be taken according to different communication groups.In addition,with the increase of topic attention,the communication behavior would also be affected.Therefore,it is of practical significance to consider the transformation from low-attention communicators to high-attention communicators.In addition,the emergence of rumor-busters has to some extent contained the spread of online rumors in emergencies.Timely rumor-busters and other measures to reduce R0 value can also control the spread of rumors.Finally,based on the empirical analysis results,from the perspective of the government,media and netizens,this paper provides decision-making and suggestions for the supervision and guidance of online rumors in emergencies.