Study On The Influence Of Demographic Structure Change On Housing Price In China

In recent years,demographic structure and housing price have been widely concerned by the society.Over the past 20 years,China's real estate market has experienced a gold period of expansion.While residents' housing conditions have been continuously improved,housing prices are also rising.The rapid rise in housing prices has led to the concentration of a large amount of resources in real estate,and the hidden dangers of the real estate market bubble have begun to gather,which seriously affected the lives of people and brought potential social risks.Because housing has the dual attributes of consumer goods and investment goods,its price determination mechanism is not completely equivalent to general consumer goods and investment goods,and has a certain degree of particularity.The determination of housing price is a complex process,and there are great differences in its performance under different macro backgrounds.Although the short-term house price will be affected by many factors such as monetary policy,land policy and even administrative orders,the most fundamental characteristic of housing is to meet the living needs of the people.Therefore,in the long run,the total population and structure with housing demand have a far-reaching impact on housing demand and house prices.According to the periodic changes of house prices,this paper discusses the reasons affecting house prices from different angles,which helps to grasp the trend of housing price changes from the macro level,and clarify the fundamental impact of population structure on housing prices,thus enriching the research on housing price related issues in demography,sociology and economics.We provide new evidence for the housing price determination mechanism and a new research perspective for investigating the impact degree and mechanism of population structure change on China's housing demand.Starting from the impact of population structure changes on housing demand and house prices,this paper uses a variety of methods to explore the impact of population structure changes such as aging,urbanization and population migration on housing prices.The main work of this paper is as follows.Firstly,we discuss the impact of the changes of population age structure on housing prices.From the perspective of population structure,we analyze the influence of the population structure change on housing price and test the impact of aging on housing price extend from the study of a single country to a macro panel data research of 57 countries and regions around world.Then we consider the influence of demographic changes on housing price and the regulating effect and regional heterogeneity of the inflow of the foreign investment(FDI)in the analysis in the case of the FDI.The empirical results show that the aging of population structure causes obvious negative impact on national house price,however,to some extent,the inflow of foreign capital increases the host country's economic vitality,promotes the host country's level of economic development,increases the income of residents and then affects the demand for housing,thereby reducing the negative impact of the aging on housing price.The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the changes of population structure have different impacts on different regions.Compared with Europe,North America and Oceania,the impacts of Asian countries are greater,while the impacts of African and Latin American countries are relatively small.In terms of the moderating effect caused by FDI,the inflow of FDI can significantly reduce the negative impact of aging on housing price in Asian countries.Compared with developing countries,aging has a greater negative impact on housing price in developed countries,but the impact of foreign capital is more obvious in developing countries.In countries that are in the Confucian culture circle,the increase of degree of aging has a very weak negative impact on housing price,and the inflow of foreign capital can significantly reduce the negative impact of aging for those countries belonging to the Confucian culture circle.Secondly,we discuss the impact of population flow on housing price from the perspective of population spatial structure change.Given that population movements to some degrees do promote the house prices of the regions that population flows into,but at the same time the house prices of regions that accommodate the population flow itself has a reverse effect on the attraction of the floating population.Therefore,we first use the house price,population flows,and other macroeconomic variables data of 286 Chinese cities,and use the latitude and longitude information and economic information of sample cities to construct weighting matrix,and use the GS3 SLS method to estimate the spatial panel simultaneous equation model.We discuss the spatial and interactive relationship between population flow and housing price from the city level.The structural model is used to try to deal with the endogenous problem between population flow and house price in previous studies.At the same time,considering that even if the floating population decides to live in the inflow place,whether the inflow population will have the intention to buy a house is a question that previous studies have rarely involved.This chapter focuses on potential demand for housing that is brought by the population migration.Unlike the previous researches,we do not use virtual variable(0-1)to measure whether nonlocal population migration,but through a more refined aspect of cultural integration using the distance of dialect as the proxy variable of cultural distance to consider the impact of cultural differences on the housing demand of the population.This chapter uses the micro-data of China Household Finance Survey(CHFS)to explore the impact of population migration and cultural integration on family housing demand,so as to provide a micro explanation from cultural aspect for the factors of the housing purchase of nonlocal inflow families.Thirdly,the influence of population spatial structure on housing price is further analyzed from the perspective of urbanization.By constructing panel data model,we conduct the empirical study to analyze the influence of regional urbanization level to regional house prices by using the provincial panel data of China from 2000 to2019.We also conduct the empirical analysis separately for the different sample separated by different regions of the east,mid and west,the income difference between urban and rural areas and the population flow and so on.The comparative analysis has done for the results with heterogeneity.At the same time,this paper also discusses the influence of regional “semi-urbanization” on regional housing price from the aspect of macro provincial panel data and micro 2010 census data.In addition,integrating population age structure and population mobility that are previously considered into a unified framework,we conduct the empirical study to analyze the joint impact of urbanization,aging and population mobility on housing prices.Finally,based on the empirical results,we analyze the path selection of China's real estate market in the context of the population structure change.From the perspective of optimizing the population structure,we provide countermeasures to keep China's real estate market running smoothly.Previous studies focus more on the impact of some single factors such as policies and land market on housing prices,while this paper focuses on the impact of demographic structure changes on housing price,revealing the causes of housing price changes from a longer-term macro perspective.From the age and spatial aspects of the population structure,we analyze the possible influence of the aging population,urbanization,population flow and cultural integration of migrant population on the real estate market.Under the background of China's population policy transformation and new urbanization construction,this paper provides empirical evidence for China to stabilize the development of the real estate market.The innovations of this paper are as follow.Firstly,we analyze the influence of population structure changes on housing price from a global perspective and for the first time,and discuss the possible regulating effect of FDI inflows during the economic development.Previous studies mainly focus on the correlation between the aging population and housing price in a single country or OECD countries,lacking the studies with large transnational samples.Based on the 1970-2017 global multinational data of 57 countries,we conduct overall empirical studies with the dynamic panel model.Then we analyze the influence of demographic changes on housing price in the case of the FDI and the regulating effect and regional heterogeneity of the FDI inflow,which alleviates the limitations of previous studies focusing only on a single economy.Furthermore,we discuss the regulating effect of the population structure change on housing price caused by the difference of foreign capital inflow in different economies,so as to supplement the existing research and provide some explanations from the perspective of foreign capital flow for the inconsistency among the existing research results.Secondly,considering the endogeneity problem between population flow and the housing price,we use spatial econometric method and absorb the advantage of the structure model by building space panel simultaneous equation model.Then we use generalized spatial three-stage least square method(GS3SLS)to estimate,thus alleviating the endogenous problem caused by the mutual causation between housing price and population flow.Different from previous studies,this paper uses the latitude and longitude information and economic information of sample cities to construct the weight matrix and uses GS3 SLS method to estimate the space panel simultaneous equation model to study the spatial autocorrelation and spatial spillover effect between housing price and population flow.Thirdly,the concept of cultural integration is introduced to explore the demand for housing purchase in the destination of foreign migration.There are many factors that influence the decision of housing purchase.At present,many domestic literatures tend to study residents' housing demand from the perspective of economic development and income level.However,there are few literatures from the perspective of cultural integration.To explore the housing demand of migrant population from the perspective of cultural integration can,to some extent,provide a useful supplement for existing relevant studies.In terms of micro data processing,this paper combines the dialect data of several dialect segments divided by county in the Chinese Language Atlas: Volume of Chinese Dialects for the first time with the data of CHFS,and identifies the difference between the birthplace and inflow place of the head of household.Then we identify the dialect distance between the two places according to the geographical division of dialects,and examine the impact of cultural differences of origin and immigration on the demand for housing purchase.Finally,we introduce the concept of “semi-urbanization” into the analysis of housing prices.It not only analyzes the impact of urbanization process on housing prices,but also focuses on the analysis of the gap between permanent population urbanization and registered residence urbanization,which is the impact of “semi-urbanization” on housing prices.At the same time,we also integrate urbanization,aging and population mobility into a unified empirical framework to explore the interaction and joint impact of urbanization,aging and population mobility on housing prices.