Analysis On The Changing Trend Of Fertility Rate And Its Influencing Factors In China

In 2020,the results of the seventh national census revealed that China’s total fertility rate stood at a mere 1.3,significantly below the replacement level of 2.1needed for generational continuity.Consequently,the question of how to boost fertility rates has emerged as a crucial concern.To address this issue,China has introduced policies such as the "Two-child" and "Three-child" policies to incentivize higher fertility.However,due to substantial economic,cultural,and social disparities across regions in China,there are evident variations in the effectiveness of these national fertility policies.Furthermore,China possesses a substantial rural population,and persistent disparities between urban and rural areas in terms of income,healthcare,and education persist.Hence,an examination of population fertility must specifically consider the discrepancies between urban and rural areas.The fertility rate serves as a pivotal indicator of fertility levels,directly influencing the future trajectory of the population,and consequently,impacting the sustainable development of the economy and society.Thus,it is imperative to comprehensively analyze the current state of China’s population fertility,evaluate the influence of both policy and non-policy factors on the fertility rate,and subsequently foster a balanced,long-term development of the population alongside stable and sustainable economic progress,taking into account China’s unique national circumstances.It is necessary to study the fertility problem of our country by region and between urban and rural areas.However,the total fertility rate data available at present only provide statistics on our country as a whole in census years and 1% of sample population survey years,the total fertility rate data of cities,towns and villages in other provinces,cities and autonomous regions have not yet been compiled,therefore,this paper estimates the total fertility rate of cities,towns and villages in provinces,cities and autonomous regions by using the method of relationship coefficient,and analyzes the current situation of our fertility rate and its changing trend based on the estimated results.It is found that the fertility level of our country is obviously different in different regions and between urban and rural areas,the fertility level of rural areas is generally higher than that of cities,and the fertility level in the regions shows a gradually decreasing trend from west to east,this is closely related to both policy and non-policy factors in all regions,of which the level of economic development is an important factor affecting total fertility rate changes.The paper then constructs a quasi-natural experiment with the help of exogenous fertility policy shocks,and uses the double difference method to assess the causal effects of fertility policy changes on the changes in the total fertility rate in different policy areas,and concludes that the implementation of the "two-child" policy has a significant effect on the total fertility rate in both the original "one-child" policy area and the original "one-and-a-half-child" policy area.The effect of the "two-child" policy on the change in the total fertility rate in both the original "one-child" policy and the original "one-and-a-half-child" policy areas is significant,and the effect is greater for the "one-child" policy areas than for the "one-and-a-half-child" policy areas.The effect of the "one-child" policy is greater than that of the "one-and-a-half-child" policy.In order to clarify the differences in fertility policies across different levels of economic development,this paper divides high,medium and low income levels into three categories of regions for heterogeneity analysis.The results of the heterogeneity analysis show that fertility policy adjustment has a significant effect on the total fertility rate in both the sample group of middle-income regions and the sample group of lower-income regions,while it does not have a significant effect on the total fertility rate in the sample group of higher-income regions with better living standards,which may be related to the lower fertility intention and insensitivity to fertility policy response in these regions themselves.Finally,the conclusion of this paper,according to our national conditions,from the regional development,urban and rural differences to develop personalized policy;Some suggestions are given on how to build a “ Procreation-friendly ” social environment and boost the procreation willingness.