| The development of population has experienced the transition from high birth rate to high death rate,from high birth rate to low death rate to low birth rate to low death rate.The census data of 2000,2010 and 2020 showed that the total fertility rate of women of childbearing age in China was 1.22,1.18 and 1.3,respectively,showing an overall downward trend and far below the population replacement level（2.1）.In 2020,the natural population growth rate of China was only 1.45‰.Some scholars believe that China has entered the "ultra-low fertility trap".In order to promote the long-term balanced development of population,China has adjusted its birth policy one after another.In 2013,it proposed the "one-child policy",in 2015,it proposed the "universal two-child policy",and in 2020,it proposed the implementation of the "universal three-child policy" and supporting measures.With the adjustment of China’s fertility policy,what measures are effective for raising fertility rate?We can draw lessons from international experience.The family policies of Northern European countries are introduced earlier,and one of their family policies is aimed at improving fertility rate.Meanwhile,Northern European countries are famous for their high welfare.In recent years,the total fertility rate of Northern European countries is close to the population replacement level.Therefore,it is the purpose and significance of this paper to study the impact of family policies in Northern Europe on fertility rate and explore which family policies can promote the increase of fertility rate,so as to form enlightenment for China to continuously improve family policies in the future.Based on the first human marriage,family and fertility policy database constructed by my tutor’s team,I conducted a study on the relationship between family policy and fertility rate in five Nordic countries.The database of human marriage,family and Fertility policy is divided into domestic and international databases,among which the international database contains 3 sub-databases,covering 42 countries,involving 22 dimensions and 189 variables.This paper mainly uses international database to study the situation of family policy and fertility level in Northern Europe,and the impact of family policy on fertility rate in Northern Europe.There are 40 family policy variables in the international database.The number of family policies owned by Nordic countries accounts for 87%-95%of the total number of family policies.The completeness of family policies is generally higher,but there are still differences among countries.Family policies in Northern Europe include leave policy,child care policy and family welfare policy.In terms of leave policy,northern Europe mainly has maternity leave,paternity leave and parental leave,as well as family nursing leave in some countries,with many kinds of leave.Over the last decade,the average amount of paid leave available to parents in Northern Europe ranged from 39 weeks（Iceland）to 170 weeks（Finland）.The way of parental leave is the most flexible among the maternity leave related to birth.Some parental leave can be arbitrarily allocated by parents.Some are the combination of parental quota and shared hours,in which parents can arbitrarily allocate vacation time;Some are a combination of parental quotas and transferable hours,with the option of full-time and part-time leave.In terms of child care policies,there are generally high levels of inclusive child care services in Northern Europe,but there are still differences between countries.Specifically,the enrolment rate of child care services is generally in the range of 93-98%.Finland has a low enrolment rate of child care（75.1%）.Nordic governments spend an average of 1.2%of THEIR GDP on child care over the years,from a minimum of us $8,000（Finland in 2017）to a maximum of US $13,200（Iceland in 2017）.In terms of family welfare policies,There are many kinds of family welfare in Northern Europe,providing families with at least two kinds of welfare（Iceland and Sweden）and at most five kinds of welfare（Finland）.Family welfare in Northern Europe is more supportive of families,with per capita public expenditure on family welfare ranging from $30,910（Finland,2013）to $53,080（Norway,2013）.Based on the theory of family needs for children,gender theory and role theory,this paper puts forward six hypotheses and analyzes the impact of family policies on fertility in Northern Europe.The total fertility rate in Northern Europe showed a downward trend from 1960 to 1976.In 1976,a package of family policies in Northern Europe prevented the continuous decline of total fertility rate,and the total fertility rate in Northern Europe increased from 1985 to 1990.From 1990 to 2010,the total fertility rate in Northern Europe was relatively stable,and the fertility rate of women aged 30-34 increased.Because the declining fertility has inertia,Scandinavian fertility policy package has not fully stopped declining fertility inertia fertility,starting in 2010 the Nordic total fertility rate began to fall,but the Nordic family policy also played a policy package stack effect,the total fertility rate decline has slowed,therefore the Nordic total fertility rate is still close to replacement level.Further research shows that formal child care services,family cash benefits and paid parental leave policies in Northern Europe all contribute to female fertility through service support,financial support and time support.However,only providing child care subsidy to families,but not enjoying the family service welfare of formal public childcare care,has no positive effect on female fertility rate.Studies have shown that formal childcare is more effective than informal childcare,and that the effect of a single policy on raising fertility is not obvious,requiring the implementation of a package of family policies to have a significant effect on fertility.The package policies of Northern Europe have formed a good inspiration for the improvement of Family policies in China.The existing family policies in China are relatively macro in content,lack of quantitative standards and less updated policies.China should refer to the experience of Family policy in Northern Europe,build a good family database in China,and evaluate the effect of family policy through quantitative data.According to the three dimensions of family policy,this paper puts forward the following suggestions:one is to improve the leave system of gender equality and strengthen the employment security of both men and women;Second,increase the supply of public child care services to improve the quality of child care services;Third,we will improve the family welfare system and provide supplementary support for various subsidies. |
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