Can The Improvement Of Labor Quality Alleviate Population Aging The Impact On The Upgrading Of Urban Residents’ Consumption?

Consumption is one of the three driving forces driving economic growth.China has long been faced with the problem of insufficient consumer spending,which has seriously hindered sustainable economic development.To expand domestic demand and upgrade the consumption structure is an important strategic choice made by the country based on the domestic and international circumstance.However,after our country’s economic development enters a new normal,some deep-level problems emerge gradually,and population aging is one of them.Demographic dividend has gradually disappeared in our country,and population aging has become an inevitable trend,which is bound to prevent the reasonable development of consumption structure upgrading.At the same time,with the increasingly complex and severe internal and external environment,high-quality labor force has become an important key element of international competition,which can effectively stimulate economic vitality.The improvement of labor force quality is also considered to be an effective means to alleviate the aging population and limit the upgrading of residents’ consumption.Rapid economic development cannot be separated from consumption.There is still no empirical evidence on whether the improvement of labor quality can alleviate the impact of the older population on the escalation of the consumption profile of the general public.This paper first reviews the literature studies on labor quality,aging population and upgrading of residents’ consumption structure,and clarifies relevant theories.The panel data of 31 provinces and municipalities in China(excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan)from 2008 to 2019 were selected to construct a double-effect extended linear expenditure(ELES)model.Eight categories of consumer expenditure were divided into basic consumer goods and high-end consumer goods,and the proportion of high-end consumer goods in total consumption expenditure was taken as the general index of consumption structure upgrading.Comprehensive use of entropy value method to measure labor quality indicators;Empirically,a benchmark model is established to investigate the hedging effect of labor quality improvement and population aging on the upgrading of consumer consumption structure.The results show that,on the whole,population aging significantly inhibits the upgrading of urban residents’ consumption structure,and labor quality can effectively mitigate the adverse impact of population aging on the upgrading of consumption structure.Secondly,the quantile model was constructed by consumer groups to analyze the difference of the hedging effect of labor force quality and the older population on the escalation of the consumption profile of the general public at different consumption levels.The results show that the hedging effect is only significant in the low consumption class and the middle and high consumption class,but has no significant effect on the middle consumption class.Finally,the spatial correlation is tested,and the spatial Dubin model and spatial quantile model are constructed to explore the spatial spillover effect of labor force quality hedging against population aging.The results show that in terms of regional correlation,the consumption structure of residents in different regions is strongly correlated,and the hedging effect has a significant positive spatial spillover effect,that is,the quality of local labor force is improved.It can not only alleviate the negative impact of local population aging on consumption upgrading,but also alleviate the negative impact of population aging on consumption upgrading in surrounding areas,and the spatial spillover effect is larger at the low score sites.According to the research,the government should pay attention to the adverse impact of population aging on consumption upgrading.It can lift the restriction of population aging from the aspects of short-term human capital quality improvement(expansion of the scale of higher education),long-term population development strategy(construction of birth system,optimization of birth system)and improvement of retirement and pension system.We will promote labor quality improvement to offset the impact of an aging population and ensure steady upgrading of consumer consumption and high-quality economic growth.