Research On Dynamic Evaluation Of Scientific Research Performance In Colleges And Universities Based On Grey System Theory

With the continuous development of "innovative country",science and technology has penetrated into all aspects of China’s economic development,social progress and human life,and has become the most active factor in China’s productive forces and a strong driving force for national development.With the implementation of the strategy of "strengthening the country with science and technology",scientific and technological innovation has become the only rule for most countries,especially developed countries,to enhance their comprehensive strength and core competitiveness.China is also more and more aware that only by vigorously developing science and technology and striving to become the world’s major scientific center and innovation highland is the right choice to stand in the forest of the world and remain invincible.In this context,with the continuous investment in scientific research patents,innovation projects and basic research,the role of university scientific and technological innovation in national innovation driven development strategy is becoming increasingly prominent.How to establish a reasonable and diversified evaluation system to evaluate the scientific research performance of colleges and universities has become the focus of attention of the government and universities.The research of "university scientific research performance evaluation" belongs to the research of uncertainty system.Among the four research methods of uncertain system,the grey system theory has become a better tool for studying the problem of university scientific research performance evaluation because it aims to explore the development law of the system and is suitable for the situation of "little data and poor information".Based on the scientific research data of 33 "double first-class" universities from 2014 to 2018,on the basis of clarifying the calculation logic of grey system theory,this paper selects grey correlation analysis to explore the dynamic changes of scientific research performance of colleges and universities in five years,and uses the grey analysis model to determine the subordinate level and key influencing factors of scientific research performance of colleges and universities.The results show that the average dynamic change of scientific research performance level of 33 universities is in the level of 0.67-0.88,and the overall change is relatively stable.The scientific research performance level of science and Engineering University is better than that of liberal arts university to some extent.In addition,among the 33 universities,6 universities have high research performance,12 universities have high scientific research performance level,5 universities have medium research performance level,7 universities have low performance level,and 1 university has low research performance level.At the same time,it is concluded that the key factors contributing to the evaluation of university scientific research performance level are:funds,scientific and technological manpower,paper output,patents,laboratories and technology transfer.Based on this,the paper puts forward some strategic suggestions to improve the scientific research performance level of colleges and universities.