Research On The Effect Of Population Flow On Economic Growth In Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region

Population is the most critical factor in economic and social development.With the large-scale changes of population,China’s economy is also developing rapidly,and population flow has long since become an important phenomenon in China’s social development.According to the seventh census,China’s floating population has reached375.82 million,an increase of nearly 70% compared with the sixth census.Regional population flow has greatly increased,and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei as an important urban agglomeration in China,there are many problems in the population flow,especially since the 2010 sixth census in Hebei province population development is unbalanced,high-quality talent inflow,the loss of the rural population is serious,the depth of the aging process is prominent.Therefore,this paper first sorts out the relevant concepts and theories of population flow and economic growth.Hence,this paper uses panel data from 13 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2020 to depict the spatial characteristics of population mobility and economic growth,data were further used for the for empirical analysis.The spatial effects of population mobility on economic growth were estimated using spatial measurement models.Finally,the threshold effect model is used to explore the non-linear impact of population flow on economic growth,so as to analyze whether the investment level,employment structure and infrastructure level are the threshold variables of the impact of population flow on economic growth.Draw the conclusions of this paper and give policy suggestions.The main research findings in this paper are as follows: First,from the perspective of floating population,the floating population in Beijing,Tianjin and Hebei maintained growth;from the perspective of net population flow,the net population flow in Beijing and Tianjin showed positive value,while most cities in Hebei Province showed negative value.Second,the spatial distribution of population flow and economic development in Beijing is uneven,from the distribution of high floating population is mainly concentrated in the central Beijing,Tianjin,around Beijing;from the distribution of economic growth,Beijing,Tianjin region economic growth has obvious "Beijing,Tianjin and Tang high around low" characteristics.Third,there is a spatial correlation between the economic growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region.According to the spatial Moran index,The spatial correlation of economic growth in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region,.Fourth,population flow has spatial spillover to economic growth;population flow not only affects local economic growth,but also affects surrounding cities to promote local economic growth.Fifth,there is a threshold effect on the impact of population flow on economic growth.The intervention of investment level,employment structure and infrastructure level makes the impact of population flow on economic growth show a "step by" change.