Study On Impact Of Population Structure Changes On Housing Demand Based On Spatial Dubin Model

Since China adopted the monetization of housing distribution in 1998,the housing security system has been gradually developed and improved.However,the soaring housing prices have made some residents' housing needs unmet.Housing exists to solve the problem of population living,and the development of the housing market is ultimately inseparable from the population.In order to further study and reveal the impact of population structure on housing demand,the demographic transition theory,life cycle theory and housing supply and demand theory related to the research theme are introduced from a qualitative perspective,and it is also combed from the three perspectives of natural population structure,social structure and regional structure.It has carried out relevant research on the impact of population structure on housing demand at home and abroad,and based on the changes in China's population structure and the development of the housing market,revealed the impact mechanism of population structure on the housing market.From the broad perspective of population structure,using housing sales as a housing demand indicator,a spatial proximity weight matrix is used to describe the spatial information between variables,and spatial panel data from 31 provinces in China from2005 to 2018 are selected to analyze the spatial correlation of variables.Taking the new construction area of housing,housing price,and per capita income as control variables,through the LM test and Wald test,it is determined that the spatial Dubin model is the most suitable model for regression.It not only considers the spatial overflow of independent variables,but also adds the factors.Spatial effects of variables.The "partial differential method" is used to decompose the regression results to measure the direct spillover effect and the indirect spillover effect of the space,and a more accurate conclusion is obtained.The empirical results show that the housing demand and population structure of most provinces and cities in China are spatially and positively correlated.The effect decomposition results of Dubin regression show that: from the direct effect,for every 1%increase in the old-age dependency ratio,the local housing demand It will increase by0.41%,and the impact coefficient will pass the 1% significant level;the positive impact coefficient of average years of education is slightly lower than the old-age dependency ratio;for every 1% increase in urbanization level,local housing demand will increase by2.27%,showing that urbanization The direct effect of the level on housing demand is very significant;the average family size and population migration structure have a significantinhibitory effect on the region,and the negative correlation of population migration is caused by the strict household registration system.From the indirect effect point of view,the increase in the proportion of children will stimulate the growth of housing demand in neighboring provinces,and its spillover effect has reached 1.72,but this spillover effect will not continue for a long time,because China's child dependency ratio may be in the next few years Maintain basic stability;miniaturization of the family structure will also increase housing demand in neighboring provinces;urbanization level has a significant negative spillover effect on housing demand.For every 1% increase in urbanization level,housing demand in neighboring provinces will fall by 2.44 %,this is because the increase in local urbanization will inevitably attract population migration,thereby reducing housing demand in neighboring provinces.Empirical studies have concluded that the population structure will produce certain fluctuations in housing demand.Based on this,in order to promote the healthy and effective development of China's real estate market,the following suggestions are proposed: use the linkage effect of housing demand to promote the common development of the housing market;based on the age of the population Structural changes,vigorously develop pension real estate;grasp the opportunities brought by the miniaturization of family structure,improve the education level of the population;balance the development of urbanization,and strive to solve the housing problem of the floating population.