Study On The Logic Of Ukraine’s Policy Choices Based On The Association Agreement In The Context Of Role Theory

Ukraine has been seeking a path to independence and autonomy after the collapse of the Soviet Union,trying to escape Russian influence and return to Europe.In 2009,driven by the Russia-Georgia War and the Russia-Ukraine natural gas dispute,the European Union accelerated its eastern enlargement policy “The Eastern Partnership”,which is intended to ensure border stability and energy security.Its core policy instrument is Associated Agreement.The agreement would grant Ukraine the status of an associated state,deepen multi-sectoral cooperation on the basis of the European Neighbourhood Policy,strengthen political and economic ties and require all-round reforms in Ukraine,which Russia strongly opposes and even ended up triggering the Ukrainian crisis.An exploration of Ukraine’s policy towards the agreement and the underlying reasons for its change,as well as the internal and external drivers,is relevant to understanding the current state of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict,the diplomatic choices of the Eurasian countries,and Ukraine’s internal and diplomatic dilemmas.“Role Theory” provides a new paradigm for the analysis of a country’s foreign policy,which contains elements such as role location,role expectations,and role sources.Its strength lies in the fact that national role as a mediating variable bridges the interaction between the unit level and the system level,presents the decision-makers’ vision of a country’s place and role in the international system at the individual,national and international levels,and provides a pathway to explore the sources and causes of this vision,which has been proven in many international political issues,so that Role theory can build an analytical framework with both practical and explanatory power.Therefore,the thesis will take a cross-level,multivariate and comprehensive look at Ukraine’s decision-making process and the drivers of national role change based on the Association Agreement,using Role theory as a lens.The thesis will highlight the leading role of the Ukrainian political elite as the main decision-makers in advancing the foreign policy-making process of the Ukrainian government,whose official statements,diplomatic pronouncements and political speeches are important vehicles for national role conception.In the framework of role theory,various Ukrainian political elites’ s position on Association Agreement has evolved in three stages according to the preferences of the various decision-makers,and it has demonstrated its role in initiating and participating in the negotiation of the Agreement,balancing the Russian and European sides,and actively pursuing the signing and implementation of the Agreement.The reasons for the role changes are complex.In terms of national role,the diplomatic pursuit of European powers by the Ugandan elite is constrained by perceptions and material factors civic identity pluralism,oligarchisation of the political system and two-way economic dependence,thus leading to the Ugandan elite’s hesitant decision-making.At the same time,as a key regional state deep in the heart of Europe and Asia,Ukraine also carries the role expectations of Russia and the EU.The Yanukovych government abandoned the agreement in the middle of the process,which led to a change of regime and a series of upheavals,as a result of the combined effects of multiple actors.When the new government came to power,the president immediately signed Association Agreement and reinforced the European character of the national role of the Ukraine,increasingly contradicting Russian expectations.