Research On The Expected Old-age Care Mode And Its Influencing Factors Of The Elderly In China

China has officially entered an aging society in 2000,the size of the elderly population is large,the aging speed is fast,and the pension situation is becoming increasingly severe.With the continuous development of medical technology and the improvement of people’s living standards,the average life expectancy of Chinese population is on the rise.Coupled with the large middle and low age elderly population base,the pressure of aging will be greater in the future.To sum up,the issue of providing for the elderly deserves special research and focus.Among them,the way of old-age care is an important part of the research field of old-age care.Accordingly,based on the latest data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey(CLHLS),dividing the expected old-age care methods into one’s own home,children’s home and institutions,starting from four dimensions,such as demographic factor,quality of life factor,intergenerational support factor and socioeconomic factor,this paper uses multi-classification Logistic regression to explore the factors affecting the elderly’s expected pension mode,and uses decision tree and lifting tree to explore the reasons why the elderly’s pension expectation cannot be realized.The results show that:①In terms of demography,there are obvious differences in age,marital status,number of children and living arrangement of the elderly.As the elderly grow older,the probability that they expect to live in their children’s home becomes higher.Compared with the old people with spouses,the old people without spouses are more likely to live in their children’s home or in institutions.On the contrary,the increase in the number of children will reduce the probability that the elderly expect to live in their children’s home;Those who do not live with their children are more expect to live in their own home or institution than those who live with their children.②In terms of quality of life,daily activity ability and participation in outdoor activities have a significant impact on the expected oldage care mode of the elderly.Compared with the elderly with good self-care ability,the elderly with limited daily activity ability are more expect to live in their children’s home.Compared with the elderly who often participate in outdoor activities,the elderly who do not often participate in outdoor activities are more expect to live in their children’s home.③In terms of intergenerational support,children’s emotion,caring support and living distance are significant influencing factors,obtaining children’s emotion or caring support can significantly improve the elderly’s expectation of living in their children’s home;Elderly people whose children live far away are more expect to go to institutions than those whose children live nearby.④In terms of social economy,the current residence,region,self-rated economic status and the number of services available in the community have a significant impact.The probability of urban elderly people expecting to live in institutions for the aged is higher than that of rural elderly people;The elderly in the eastern and central regions are more expect to live in their own homes or institutions for the aged than those in the western regions;Compared with the elderly with poor economic status,those who self-rated rich economic status are more expect to live in their children’s home than the probability of living in their own home;The more diverse the types of community services,the elderly are more expect to live in institutions than their own home.⑤Living arrangement,children’s caring support,children’s emotional support,daily activity ability and age will all cause the elderly to "live contrary to their wishes".It can be seen that the factors leading to the elderly’s unsatisfied expectation of old-age care are mainly the intergenerational support of their children and the elderly’s own conditions.Therefore,we should start from these two aspects and try our best to realize the old-age care expectation of the elderly.Finally,based on the research results,the following suggestions are put forward:①Guide the elderly to set up the correct idea of supporting the elderly;②Provide care and companionship,increase emotional comfort;③Give play to the important role of village committees and neighborhood committees;④Improve the social security system for the elderly;⑤Strengthen the planning and construction of pension institutions;⑥Adhere to the family pension as the basis,to build a diversified pension model.