The Impact Of Population Aging On Nonproductive Public Expenditure

Population aging has become the main trend of world development,and China is no exception.By 2021,China’s population over 65 reached 200 million 560 thousand,accounting for 14.2% of the total population of the country,compared with 88 million210 thousand in 2000,the growth rate was over 100%.The provision of related public goods or services is an important guarantee to ensure social security,stability and prosperity.Therefore,it is very important to explore the preference of relevant public goods supply under the background of aging.Based on this perspective,this paper selects the eastern region of China as a reference,classifies public goods into three aspects: education,medical treatment and social security,and studies their relevance and possible impact with the deepening reality of aging society.This paper is mainly divided into five parts.The first part introduces the background and research significance of the topic,combs the relevant domestic and foreign literature,and expounds the research content,methods and innovation;The second and third parts give the related concepts of aging and unproductive public expenditure,and analyze and summarize the characteristics of population aging and unproductive public expenditure in China and the eastern region;The fourth part is the content of empirical analysis,which uses the econometric model to analyze the correlation between the two,introduces the population age structure and takes the population density as the control variable,and focuses on the impact of the change of population aging on the supply of all kinds of non productive public expenditure;The fifth part gives conclusions and suggestions.This paper uses the fixed effect model and the panel data of provinces and cities in China in recent ten years compiled from the China Statistical Yearbook to verify the correlation of education,health care and social security under the background of aging.The empirical regression results show that aging has a positive and significant impact on social security expenditure in eastern China,while it has a negative and significant impact on medical and health expenditure,and has a negative but not significant impact on education expenditure.Based on the above empirical regression conclusions and the current situation of social aging,this paper puts forward relevant policy suggestions: first,the government should invest more funds in the field of people’s livelihood in combination with the actual situation of population aging,accelerate the construction of relevant public services and improve the level of social welfare;Secondly,we should build a more reasonable fiscal expenditure structure and increase investment in relevant aspects in order to better improve the level of economic development;In addition,the government should introduce more incentive policies to encourage fertility,stimulate the increase of fertility,and develop industries related to the elderly,so as to alleviate the adverse impact of aging on social and economic development.