Research On The Prediction Of Population Aging And The Gap Between Pension Fund Revenue And Expenditure In Hebei Province

Population aging is the basic situation of China as well as Hebei in the future.The increasing population aging will have a great impact on society,economy,culture and regional comprehensive competitiveness.China’s "fourteenth Five-Year Plan" clearly proposes to improve the pension structure system,realize the national pooling of basic pension insurance,do a good job in the short and medium term,long-term population forecast.Therefore,the analysis and study of the current situation of the elderly population in Hebei province and the development trend of aging and pension revenue and expenditure gap are predicted to find out the existing problems and their causes,which will provide data basis for the government to formulate pension fund related policies.This study is of great significance for the government to comprehensively promote the construction of healthy China and guarantee the balanced and stable operation of hebei social insurance system.The main work of this thesis is as follows:1.Based on the statistical data of Hebei province from 2001 to 2019,this thesis analyzes the current situation of population aging in Hebei province,and finds that there are a large number of elderly people,a high old-age dependency ratio and an increasingly severe aging population.Then it analyzes the current situation from three angles: the number of insured urban workers,the number of retirees and the pension income and expenditure,and finds that the former two are growing at a steady rate every year,and the scale of pension fund income and expenditure is also increasing year by year.2.From the target population,residents’ income level,urban employment level,urbanization level,the level of economic development and population sex ratio at the six dimensions,select some of the important factors to build index system,to the pension balance as the dependent variable,elderly dependency ratio as the key variable,as the number of retired people,ginseng protect indicators as control variable,Establish the econometric regression model of pension balance for empirical analysis.3.The elderly population data of Hebei province from 2010 to 2019 were selected to construct GM model,SVM model and GM-SVM combined prediction model based on standard deviation method.Three different models were used to fit the historical data of recent 10 years,and the validity of the model was tested by relative error method.As can be seen from the results,the combined model has higher prediction accuracy,so the combined model is finally used to predict the number of the elderly population in Hebei province from 2020 to 2030,laying a foundation for the prediction of the number of retired and insured people.4.Based on the statistical data of hebei province in the past 10 years,the actuarial models of income,expenditure and balance of basic endowment insurance fund are established respectively according to pension contribution ratio,urban workers’ on-duty wage,average wage growth rate,the number of insured people and other indicators,and the gap between pension income and expenditure of urban workers in Hebei Province from 2020 to 2030 is predicted.It found that the pension gap is expected to shrink sharply in the coming years,with payments expected to exceed payments by 2024.Then,the main factors affecting the future pension gap are obtained by sensitivity analysis of the influencing factors in the pension gap prediction model.5.According to the above analysis results,it is concluded that the situation of aging population in Hebei is serious,which has a great impact on the gap of pension income and expenditure.In order to ease the financial burden of the financial sector,this thesis puts forward several opinions,providing guidance and suggestions for the relevant government departments to solve the problem of aging population and gap of pension fund income and expenditure.