| According to the internationally accepted judgment criteria,China officially entered the aging society in 1999.It is one of the developing countries that entered the aging society earlier.As the country with the largest elderly population,it accounts for one fifth of the total elderly population in the world.Different from the background of population aging faced by developed countries,China’s economic characteristics of "getting old before getting rich" and imperfect old-age security system make us face more severe challenges in dealing with the negative effects of aging.At present,China is in a critical period of economic development and population transformation.Due to the birth control of the family planning policy since the 1970 s,China has only spent more than 30 years to realize the transformation of the population structure from the medium-term structure to the ultimate structure,and began to face a long-term stage of low birth rate,low mortality and low population growth rate,Its speed is much faster than that of most developed countries.The report of the 19 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out that China’s economy has changed from a high-speed growth stage to a high-quality development stage,and is in a key period of changing the development mode,optimizing the economic structure and changing the growth power.According to the long-term goal of2035,China’s per capita GDP will exceed 20000 US dollars in 2035 and basically realize socialist modernization.Judging from the high-income country standard of US $12535 per capita determined by the world bank,China still has a gap of about US $2000.In order to cross the middle-income trap and enter the ranks of high-income countries during the 14 th Five Year Plan period,China still needs to maintain an average annual economic growth of about 5%,but to achieve the goal of a socialist modern country,it is necessary to maintain a certain economic growth rate,To achieve high-quality development,we should deal with the problems of growth and emission reduction,coordinate the relationship between development and security,especially pay more attention to social equity,optimize the income distribution structure and promote common prosperity will be one of the important goals of China’s development in the future.Under the general trend of population aging in China,the change of age structure is bound to have a far-reaching impact on China’s income distribution.Aging does not mean the absolute increase in the number of the elderly population,but the development trend and social process of the increasing proportion of the elderly population in the total population.To deal with population aging,China should not only deal with the elderly care problem,but also coordinate the development of the whole social group and the distribution of social welfare within and between generations.In order to cope with the aging of the population,the simple adjustment of population policy is unlikely to work.It is more necessary to integrate the government’s public resources,promote comprehensive policy reform,and enable all actors in the market to work together under the leadership of the government.Therefore,according to China’s actual situation,based on the combination of theory and demonstration,macro and micro data,this thesis attempts to explore the impact of population aging on income distribution and its mechanism,and look for effective measures to slow down the expansion of income distribution gap under the background of population aging,so as to reduce the negative impact of population aging on China’s longterm economic development.First of all,through theoretical analysis,empirical analysis and empirical analysis,this thesis verifies the negative effects of aging on income distribution.Based on the existing research,through the analysis of China’s provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019,this thesis tests the role of aging in the formation of income inequality in China,and introduces micro data to support the conclusion on the basis of macro analysis between and within groups.The data analysis results of various dimensions show that there is a significant negative correlation between aging and income inequality indicators in China.The continuous evolution of China’s social age structure to an aging society will aggravate China’s income inequality and promote the expansion of income gap.Secondly,this thesis makes a series of theoretical discussions and empirical tests on the mechanism of aging affecting income distribution,and specially selects three intermediary variables to test the intermediary effect.It is found that the specific impact mechanism of aging on income distribution is not a monotonous and direct transmission mode,but a complex structural impact of various properties,Among the various intermediary effects of aging on income distribution,there are both good and bad.In dealing with the problems of aging and income gap,challenges and opportunities coexist.In the influence mechanism of economic growth as an intermediary variable,the elderly dependency ratio affects income distribution by affecting economic growth.The lower the elderly dependency ratio,the higher the economic growth,and the larger the income gap.However,this impact on income distribution will be reversed after the economic growth reaches a certain stage.Low elderly dependency ratio and high economic growth can make the income gap smaller and smaller,At the same time,the lower the child dependency ratio,the lower the economic growth and the smaller the income gap.Similarly,after the economic growth reaches a certain stage,the impact on income distribution will be reversed.Low child dependency ratio and low economic growth will widen the social income gap.In the influence mechanism of public expenditure bias as an intermediary variable,the high elderly dependency ratio enlarges the income distribution gap by increasing the public expenditure bias,and the low-level children dependency ratio also enlarges the public expenditure bias,and then enlarges the income distribution gap.In the influence mechanism of technological progress as an intermediary variable,high elderly dependency ratio reduces the income distribution gap by hindering technological progress,and children dependency ratio also reduces the income distribution gap by hindering technological progress.Finally,in the heterogeneity test according to the level of regional development,among the four regions with different levels of social and economic development in China,there are great differences in the transmission effect of aging affecting income distribution in the East,central,northeast and western regions.In the model with economic growth as the intermediary,the economic development level of the region itself may be related to whether the impact is obvious or not.In developed areas with economic development above a certain stage,the impact of changes in economic growth will be greater or more obvious,while in areas with backward economic development level,The impact that economic growth can receive and release will be smaller or less obvious.In the model in which public expenditure tends to be the intermediary,the effect of areas with lower economic development level is more significant than that of areas with higher development level.In areas with lower economic development level,because the local economic strength is lower than that of developed areas,the base of public expenditure itself is relatively small.In the face of the impact of aging,The guarantee task and pressure of public finance are relatively heavy,and the function of redistribution of national income and narrowing the income gap will be weakened.In the eastern and central regions with relatively good economic situation,this pressure is relatively small,and the influence mechanism through public expenditure bias as an intermediary is not so obvious.In the model of technological progress as an intermediary,the aging of the eastern and central regions does not significantly hinder the technological progress of the region.The reason may be that families and enterprises in areas with more developed market economy have made the best response to population aging,such as families increasing their own and children’s human capital investment Enterprises have increased R & D investment and innovation investment,thus promoting biased technological progress.Finally,because the positive effect of population aging on technological progress is greater than its negative effect,the total effect is finally positive.However,in areas with less developed market economy such as northeast and West,economic actors lack the ability to make the best response under the impact,The positive effect of population aging on technological progress can not be greater than its negative effect.On the other hand,the western region is unique in the impact of technological progress on income distribution,which may be because in areas where the market economy and technological level are relatively in a more primary stage and the combination of capital and technology is not so close,the productivity increase brought by technological progress can bring more inclusive welfare and income increase to the region.The purpose of this study is to explore and discuss the path and mechanism of population aging affecting income distribution in China,study the overall effect of population aging on income distribution through models,quantitatively analyze the multiple impacts of aging on income distribution through economic growth,public expenditure bias and technological progress,and conduct a more in-depth analysis of these impacts based on the degree of population aging and economic and social development in various regions of China,On the basis of previous studies,this paper makes a more specific discussion on the action path and mechanism of aging affecting income distribution,and tries to make a more comprehensive discussion on the process and impact of population aging from the top and bottom of the population pyramid,which may be some marginal contributions provided by this paper.Based on the objective assessment of the impact of population aging on regional economic growth,public expenditure,scientific and technological progress and income distribution,this paper puts forward corresponding policy recommendations for the aging society and alleviating the income distribution gap from the aspects of social security system,aging market,industrial policy,education and culture,so as to provide spiritual and material preparation for further coping with many challenges of the aging society in the future. |
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