Spatial Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Different Types Of Settlement Intentions Of Floating Population In China

In the context of human-centered urbanization development,accelerating the urbanization of floating population is an important task for China to comprehensively improve the quality of new urbanization during the "14th Five-Year Plan".The settlement intention is a pre-qualitative index to predict the citizenization process of floating population,which needs to be accurately judged and measured.In this paper,firstly O-D flows are constructed based on outflow and inflow cities.Secondly,the settlement intention of floating population is divided into de jure migration intention,de facto migration intention and circulation intention through the interaction of subsequent stay intention,long-term settlement intention and hukou transfer intention.Finally,the multi-classification settlement intention and O-D flows are combined to obtain three types of settlement intention flows.On this basis,the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of different types of settlement intention flows are analyzed.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)On the whole,the current floating population does not have a strong desire to settle down permanently.Only 10.61% of the floating population have de facto migration intention,27.93% of the floating population have de jure migration intention,and the vast majority of the floating population are still select circulation.Three types of groups with different settlement intentions have similar characteristics: married,rented,employees,family mobility,upward mobility.The differences are mainly reflected in gender,age,education,household income and expenditure,residence time,mobility range and the land and sea position of the outflow and inflow of the city.(2)In terms of spatial distribution characteristics,all types of settlement intention flows are concentrated toward coastal cities,large cities,and inland provincial capitals.The differences are as follows:(1)The flows of de jure migration intention are more concentrated,forming three major communities with Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen as the agglomeration centers,and four small communities under the law of spatial proximity.High-value de jure migration intention flows are mainly from inland provincial capital cities and Jiangsu and Zhejiang cities to Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen.The flows of low value de jure migration intention mostly are from the less developed cities to the eastern manufacturing developed cities.(2)The de facto migration intention network is relatively fragmented,and the agglomeration centers are some provincial capital cities or regional central cities.The high-value de facto migration intention flows are mainly short distance upward flow,while the low-value de facto migration intention flows mainly flow to Beijing and Shanghai.(3)There is little difference in the community division between circulation intention network and the de jure migration intention network,and the circulation intention flows and the de jure migration intention flows complement each other in space: the high value of the circulation intention flows mainly converge on the coastal cities,and the low value flows converge on Beijing,Shanghai and Shenzhen.(3)The results of the model show that:(1)From a microscopic perspective,age,education,house ownership and local registered spouse promote the formation of de jure migration intention of floating population,while male proportion and non-family migration play a restraining role.These variables have opposite effects on the formation of floating population’s circulation migration intention.Intra-provincial mobility and monthly household income inhibit and promote de jure migration intention of floating population respectively,while self-employment inhibits circulation migration intention of floating population.The de facto migration intention is the transitional intention between de jure migration intention and circulation migration intention.The proportion of males,age and education play a consistent role in the de facto migration intention with the circulation intention,while the non-family migration and house ownership play a consistent role in the de facto migration intention with the de jure migration intention.In addition,intraprovincial migration and self-employment are conducive to the formation of de facto migration intention of floating population,while monthly household income has a negative impact.(2)From the perspective of macro urban difference,high per capita GDP,high salary and unstable labor market in the inflow places promote the formation of de jure migration intention of floating population,while high teaching staff plays an inhibiting role.In addition to the insignificant influence of per capita GDP difference on de facto migration intention,the above variables have opposite effects on the formation of de facto migration intention and circulation intention of floating population compared with de jure migration intention.Among geographical factors,upward mobility only promotes de jure migration intention of floating population,de facto migration intention is only promoted by internal and external flows of urban agglomerations,while circulation intention is inhibited by external and upward flows of urban agglomerations and promoted by inland to coastal flows.