Study On The Evolution And Influencing Factors Of The Geo-relationship Between India And Neighboring Countries

Against the background of the eastward shift of the center of gravity in the world geopolitical landscape,the region where India and its neighboring countries are located has become increasingly important in the world strategic landscape.As a major power in South Asia,India is committed to seeking the status of a world power while consolidating its hegemony in South Asia.The U.S.,out of its strategic need to contain China,has attempted to deliberately draw India in through the "Indo-Pacific Strategy," thereby expanding its so-called great power self-confidence and adopting a more assertive stance in dealing with its neighbors,including China.India’s increasing aggressiveness and the spread of extraterritorial powers have made the geopolitical environment in India and its surrounding areas increasingly complex.The "One Belt,One Road" initiative passes through India and its neighboring countries,but except for the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor,all other corridor projects have encountered different degrees of obstacles due to the complex geopolitical environment of the region and India’s passive resistance.Therefore,studying the evolution of India’s geo-relationship with its neighboring countries and the factors influencing them,and exploring India’s logic behind the changes in relations,is of great significance and value for China to promote the "Belt and Road" initiative in the southwest and strengthen its geopolitical cooperation with countries along the route.Based on the theories of geopolitics,geoeconomics,interdependence,national interests,and social networks,this paper applies the cooperation and conflict data in GDELT database to firstly classify the cooperation and conflict relations between India and neighboring countries into different stages through time-bound clustering,and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns and hotspot distribution of the evolution of geo-relationship between India and neighboring countries;and then use the social network analysis method to construct The study then uses social network analysis to construct a model of India’s geo-relationship with neighboring countries,and quantitatively portrays and analyzes the characteristics of the geo-relationship network.The main content of this study is divided into seven parts: the first part is the background of the selected topic,theoretical and practical significance,a review of relevant domestic and foreign studies,research ideas and contents,research methods and technical lines.The second part introduces the concept of geo-relationship,theoretical basis and explains the application of relevant theories in the article.The third part analyzes the spatial and temporal patterns of India’s overall geo-relationship with neighboring countries,and the changes of cooperation and conflict hotspots.The fourth part introduces the social network analysis method,constructs a model of India’s geo-relationship network with neighboring countries,and analyzes the network characteristics and changes in bilateral geo-relationship.In the fifth part,the geo-economical,geopolitical,and geo-cultural variables are selected to analyze the factors influencing the evolution of India’s geo-relationship with neighboring countries empirically.The sixth part analyzes India’s driving logic behind the evolution of India’s relations with neighboring countries from different levels based on India’s "concentric circles" strategic blueprint,and proposes China’s response strategies.The seventh part concludes with a discussion and an outlook on the aspects of this study that need to be further developed.The main conclusions from the study are as follows:(1)The spatial patterns of both regional cooperation and conflict geopolitical relations have changed.From the standard deviation elliptical center of gravity shift,the center point from the first stage to the second stage moves to the northwest,and the center point from the second stage to the fourth stage moves to the northeast,which has a greater impact on the spatial pattern of regional geopolitical relations,but the movement of the conflict center point in that time period is smaller than the movement of the cooperation center point in the same time period.In terms of ellipse area,the cooperation range from the first stage to the fourth stage shows a trend of first shrinking and then expanding,and the conflict range shows a trend of shrinking-expanding-shrinking again.The flat rate of conflict ellipse is generally smaller than the flat rate of cooperation,and combined with the changes of the center of gravity of the standard deviation ellipse and the long and short axes,it can be seen that India and China have more influence in the region,and the regional geo-relationship are in an unbalanced state.(2)According to the results of the nuclear density analysis,The hots pots of cooperation and conflict between India and neighboring countries are distributed in concentrated contiguous bands near India’s borders with neighboring countries.These hots pots are concentrated in Khyber-Pushtoon,Islamabad Capital Territory Gilgit-Baltistan and Azad Kashmir in northern Pakistan,Jammu and Kashmir,Himachal Pradesh,Uttarakhand,and Punjab in northwest India and the northeast region in India,and Khulna District,Borisal District and Chittagong District in southern Bangladesh and Dhaka district in central Bangladesh.Beijing,the capital of China,has also become a separate cluster for regional cooperation and conflict.In addition,Chin State,Rakhine State in Myanmar and Sri Lanka can be low concentration areas for cooperation and conflict at certain times.(3)In the cooperation network,the first stage is dominated by the cooperation between China and Pakistan,which is affected by the changing world situation and terrorism after the end of the Cold War,and the cooperation between the countries is not close and shows a state of confusion;in the second stage,Pakistan,China and India become the countries with the highest cooperation heat,but the mutual cooperation is limited due to the domestic economic and political situation of India and the multifaceted problems in the region;in the third In the third and fourth stages,China’s nodes increase significantly and become the most hot countries in the region.In the conflict network,the largest node in the first stage is India,the second stage is Pakistan and India,and the conflict between the two countries has become the most prominent bilateral relationship in the region;in the third stage India and Pakistan are still the two largest nodes in the region,but the conflict between India and other neighboring countries has moderated;in the fourth stage,the size of each country’s node is similar to the previous stage,and only the structure of the association has changed.(4)In the evolution of bilateral relations from 2000 to 2021,India’s relations with China,Nepal and Pakistan have declined significantly,India’s relations with Bangladesh have improved,India’s relations with Bhutan have remained stable for a long time,and India’s relations with Myanmar,Sri Lanka and Maldives have shown fluctuations.(5)By empirically analyzing the factors influencing the evolution of India’s geopolitical relations with neighboring countries,we find that the length of diplomatic relations,arms exports,energy exports,inbound tourism,distance to the capital and the score of India’s bilateral relations with neighboring countries are positively correlated;territorial conflicts,bilateral trade and the score of India’s bilateral relations with neighboring countries are negatively correlated.(6)With reference to India’s "concentric circles" strategy,the driving logic behind the evolution of India’s geo-relationship with neighboring countries is reflected as follows: at the domestic level,BJP promotes the strong rise of Hindu nationalism in order to consolidate its ruling position;at the South Asian level,India continuously adjusts its South Asian strategy to ensure its dominant position in South Asia;At the level of regional powers,India sees China as a strategic competitor and strengthens its competitive posture against China;at the global level,India has upgraded its international status with the help of the strategic alliance between the United States,Japan,India and Australia.In response,China should focus on resolving the Sino-Indian border dispute,stabilizing the Sino-U.S.-Indian triangle under the Indo-Pacific strategy,doing a good job of increasing trust and clearing doubts,making efforts to build a responsible image of a great power,adopting a more flexible peripheral policy,and continuing to promote the development of the Belt and Road.