A Comparative Study On The Urbanization Development Level And Dynamics Of Shrinking Cities In Three Provinces Of Northeast China Based On Contextual Relevance Analysis

Urbanization is a social and economic phenomenon rooted in localization and embedded in globalization.It is an important symbol of the economic and social development of a country or region,and also an important measure for the government to implement development planning and promote economic layout.Since the reform and opening up,China’s urbanization has achieved great achievements that have attracted worldwide attention.Its speed and scale are far beyond the world average level.With the rapid development of urbanization,the traditional urban planning concept based on growth scenario simulation has been severely challenged.China has successively witnessed relatively obvious urban shrinkage phenomenon,among which three provinces of Northeast China have become the most typical and representative regions of urban shrinkage problem in China.Based on the existing research results,this thesis divides 34 prefecture-level cities in the three northeastern provinces into three contexts: growth cities and shrinking cities,shrinking cities of different development stages and shrinking cities of different types,and carries out a comparative study on urbanization development level and dynamics of shrinking cities in the three northeastern provinces.It is of great practical significance to diagnose the existing problems of cities in different development contexts and put forward differentiated path responses by classification.At the same time,it can provide reference for the Northeast revitalization,regional integration of three provinces of Northeast China and the high-quality development of shrinking urban urbanization.At present,researches on urban shrinkage and urbanization at home and abroad have achieved fruitful results,but there are still the following deficiencies: Firstly,in terms of the research content,the urban shrinkage occurred relatively late in China,and the research mainly focused on the reference of foreign experience and the "Sinicization and localization" of urban shrinkage proposed by some scholars.The quantitative research on the urban shrinkage effect,especially the specific shrinkage effect,is relatively lacking.Secondly,from the perspective of research,domestic researches on the level and dynamics of urbanization development mainly focus on the vertical and temporal evolution of urbanization level and dynamics of a single city or urban agglomeration,and lacks the horizontal comparative analysis from the perspective of context relevance.Thirdly,in the analysis framework,the domestic four-dimensional analysis framework of administrative power,market power,external power and internal power has been formed for the urbanization development,but in the context of the new era and the dual-cycle new development pattern,there is a lack of relevant research on the interpretation of the new era connotation of the urbanization development dynamics.Therefore,from the perspective of context correlation,this thesis uses mean square deviation weighting method,spatial autocorrelation analysis and other methods to carry out a comparative study on the development level and dynamics of shrinking cities in three provinces of Northeast China.Firstly,it combs the research progress and basic theories of urban shrinkage and urbanization at home and abroad,finds the starting point of the research,and demonstrates the feasibility and innovation of the research;then,it analyzes the connotation of urbanization,urbanization dynamics and context relevance,constructs the evaluation index system of urbanization level,and adds innovation power on the basis of the original four-dimensional analysis framework of urbanization dynamics to respond to the requirements of the new era and dual-cycle new development pattern;then,it calculates the development level of shrinking urban urbanization in the three northeastern provinces under context correlation,diagnoses its shrinking effect and explores the strength and its causes of the urbanization dynamics of shrinking cities under context correlation;finally,from the regional level to the contextual level,it diagnoses the main problems existing in the process of urbanization development in three provinces of Northeast China and puts forward differentiated path response.The main research conclusions are as follows:(1)The urbanization level and subsystem urbanization level in the three northeastern provinces have obvious growth trend,but there is the heterogeneity in the development context of urban growth and shrinkage: the urbanization level and subsystem urbanization level of shrinking cities are generally lower than that of growing cities,and there is an obvious shrinking effect.The urbanization level and subsystem urbanization level of shrinking cities at different development stages show the development evolution characteristics of "city in the early stage of shrinkage > city in the late stage of shrinkage > city in the middle stage of shrinkage ".The shrinkage effect is also obvious,but it does not seem to show an absolute "stepwise" decline feature,mainly due to the superimposed influence of urban development attributes and index attributes.The urbanization level and subsystem urbanization level of different types of shrinking cities show the typic characteristics of "resource-dependent shrinking city >comprehensive shrinking city > siphon shrinking city > location-restrictive shrinking city".In terms of spatial coupling correlation,there is a high degree of spatial matching between shrinking cities and urbanization level,which has an obvious shrinking effect.Meanwhile,urbanization level has a relatively significant spatial agglomeration feature,which has an spatial positive correlation,forming an evolutionary pattern of "T-shaped axis belt + core-periphery".(2)The urbanization dynamics of the three northeastern provinces is the result of the joint action of administrative power,market power,external power,internal power,and innovation power.However,the strength of each force has the heterogeneity of the development context of urban growth and shrinkage: the urbanization dynamics of shrinking cities is significantly weaker than that of growing cities,showing a quantitative relationship of "administrative power > market power > internal power > innovation power > external power",and the innovation power is insufficient.It is closely related to the development factor outflow of shrinkage cities and the coupling effect brought by factor outflow.The urbanization dynamics of shrinking cities in different development stages and different types of shrinking cities are similar to the laws reflected by shrinking cities.The overall evolution trend is "administrative power > market power > internal power > innovation power > external power".Among them,the urbanization dynamics of location-constrained shrinking cities show an obvious "polarization" trend,and the administrative power is far from other four-dimensional forces.(3)From the regional level to the contextual level,this thesis summarizes the differentiated response strategies for the high-quality development of urbanization in the three northeastern provinces: the overall response strategies in the three northeastern provinces include deepening the reform of state-owned enterprises,promoting the development of private enterprises,and activating market forces;actively undertaking industrial transfer,promoting the optimization and upgrading of industrial structure,and strengthening the internal power;based on the new development pattern of double circulation,expanding the high-level opening to the outside world and enhance the outward drive;making full use of high-quality scientific research conditions to help innovation-driven development and stimulate innovation motivation;focusing on the people,striving to ensure and improve people’s livelihood,and improving the equalization of basic public services.The differentiated regulation and control measures in the context include based on the national northeast revitalization strategy,reshaping the "core hinterland" scope based on the policy highland,and improving the urbanization level of the economic subsystem;insisting on intensive land use,ecological environment improvement,ice and snow tourism cultivation,and narrowing the gap between shrinking cities and growth cities in the development level and dynamics of urbanization;accelerating the development of urbanization and industrialization and market-oriented reform of state-owned enterprises,and strengthening the innovation power,internal power and market power;actively undertaking the industrial transfer of regional central cities,strengthening the co-construction and sharing of resources with regional central cities,and strengthening the internal power;making full use of the advantageous location of bord,and improving external power.