Research On The Evaluation Of Copyright Value Of Domestic Movies Based On License Fee Saving Method

The global film industry has suffered to some extent in recent years.In 2021,the box office performance of domestic films ranked first in the world,and a strong comeback showed the strength and sustainability of domestic films.The advancement of the film industry is an significant component of the China’s transformation into a cultural power,and overcoming the difficult financing of the film industry is now an important step to support for local films.In this context,this article analyses the current advancement status of domestic films and evaluates the value of film copyrights through empirical analysis and the method of saving royalties.First,it explains the current advancement status of China’s film market,compares the domestic and international literature,and finds that the value of domestic film copyrights mainly consists of box-office receipts and that it is appropriate to use the royalty saving method in the income method to estimate the value of film copyrights.Second,based on these theories,nine explanatory variables-director’s influence,actor’s influence,adaptation or sequel,film genre,film program,number of people who want to see the film,distributor,picture effect,and film rating-were applied to the observed 100 domestic films released from 2018 to2022 using a random forest model and a multiple regression model respectively,and two explanatory variables for box office earnings were obtained;the top 10 films released between2021 and 2022 were then selected and tested in each of these two models,the prediction results of the two models were compared with the actual box office results,and the results found that the prediction error rate of the random forest model was lower and better,and the empirical analysis showed that the effect of film rating on box office results was the largest,followed by the effect of director and the number of people who wanted to see the film,and the effect of picture was the smallest.This also shows that quality is still winning at the box office.The projected box office revenues were then divided according to industry rules to calculate the amount of rights holder revenue and determine other parameters.Applying the previous theoretical study to the valuation practice,this thesis applies a valuation model to calculate the copyright value of a film using Wandering Earth 2 as an example,conducts a sensitivity analysis of each parameter of the valuation model,and finds that changes in box-office receipts have a greater impact on the valuation value,while variations in the discount rate and profit date have a smaller impact on the valuation value.In conclusion,it is hoped that this thesis provides some guidance for investing in films and improving the valuation system of domestic film copyrights to contribute to the successful advancing of the domestic film industry.