Research On The Evaluation Of The Value Of The Copyright Of Film Works

With the development of China’s economy,people’s living standards continue improving.This makes the cultural industry flourished.As an important part of the cultural industry,the film industry is entering a golden age of development.The rapid development of the film industry has led to a corresponding increase in economic activities involving film copyright and a corresponding increase in the demand for copyright evaluation.In practice,the income method is the most commonly used method to evaluate the value of copyright.The difficulty of evaluation lies in the determination of film copyright income.The film copyright income mainly comes from the film box office income,so the difficulty in determining the value of film copyright lies in the determination of the film box office income.Based on the current development status of the film industry in China and the needs of the assessment business,this article focuses on the value of film copyright before the film is released.Using two models predict movie box office revenue and then determine the movie copyright value.This article is divided into five parts: The first part is the introduction.It points out that the key and difficult point of the income method to evaluate the value of film copyright lies in the prediction of film box office income.The second part is the related concepts and theoretical basis of film copyright and film box office.The related theoretical foundations of the film industry chain,film copyright,film box office,and consumer behavior theory are described.The third part is the analysis and construction of movie box office income prediction model.Firstly,it constructs the index system of movie box office influencing factors.From the perspective of consumers,the article sort out the influencing factors of movie box office.Based on the needs of the evaluation time point,select the data that can be dynamically obtained to quantify the influential factors of the movie.Based on the data of 250 domestic movies released in China from 2014 to 2018,Using the most classic multiple linear regression model in movie box office prediction and the currently more advanced prediction model XGBoost model conducts empirical analysis and prediction research on the influencing factors of movie box office,and randomly selects 10 movies in 2019 for prediction test and comparison.The fourth part calculates the value of film copyright based on the prediction of box office income and applies it to actual cases to calculate the actual value of film copyright.The article also analyzes the sensitivity of the main parameters to determine the impact of changes in each parameter on the evaluation of film copyright value,and further verifies the importance of the accuracy of the box office income forecast for the evaluation of film copyright value.Improving the accuracy of movie box office income prediction is conducive to improving the film copyright evaluation system.The fifth part is the conclusion and outlook.The previous improvements and applications are analyzed and summarized,and the directions that can be improved in the future research process are pointed out.The empirical results show that the prediction power of XGBoost is better than the multiple linear regression model.In terms of influencing factors,the Internet wants to see the index and the main creative lineup have the biggest impact on the box office of the movie.It can be seen that the pre-movie effect of the movie and the fan effect of the main creative team will affect the box office revenue.In the future,when evaluating the value of film copyright based on film box office income,we should focus on the pre-film promotion effect and the influence of the main creative team.Compared with the multivariate linear regression model,XGBoost is more suitable for prediction.Based on the demand of the film market in China and the needs of asset evaluation,this paper builds a film box office income forecast model based on the introduction of film box office influencing factors,calculates the value of film copyright,and provides an evaluation idea and method for the evaluation of film copyright in China.