Analysis Of The Prevalence Of Chronic Diseases And Arima Model Prediction In National Health Checkup In High-tech Zone (Xinshi District) From 2016 To 2020

Objective:The national health examination data of urban and rural residents in Urumqi High-tech Zone（New district）were analyzed.The changes of high-incidence chronic diseases in the past five years,the epidemiological characteristics and change rules of related chronic diseases were analyzed.ARIMA time series model was used to predict the development trend of high-incidence chronic diseases.To provide scientific basis and policy recommendations for the formulation of health policies and disease prevention and control measures for urban and rural residents.Methods:In this survey,residents of Urumqi High-tech Zone（new district）were selected as the research objects,and physical examination data of permanent urban and rural residents≥18 years old who participated in the national health examination in Urumqi high-tech Zone（new district）from 2016 to2020 were retrospectively collected for description and analysis.The disease detection rate from the first quarter of 2016 to the fourth quarter of 2020 was used as the training set to establish the summing autoregressive moving average model（ARIMA）,which was verified with the actual detection rate of the four quarters of 2021,and the disease detection rate of the four quarters of 2022 was predicted.Results:1)The top five chronic diseases with high incidence in Urumqi High-tech Zone（New district）from 2016 to 2020 were hyperlipidemia,obesity,hypertension,fatty liver and diabetes.Among them,the detection rates of hyperlipidemia and obesity were the top two in the five years.2)From 2016 to 2020,the average annual growth rates of hyperlipidemia,obesity,hypertension,fatty liver,and diabetes were 1.54%,-5.59%,-6.66%,-0.49,and 5.21%,respectively.3)The prevalence of hyperlipidemia,hypertension,fatty liver and diabetes increased with age.The prevalence of hyperlipidemia,obesity and hypertension was higher in men than in women,while diabetes was higher in women than in men.Both smoking and drinking were risk factors for the disease.4)The optimal ARIMA model is determined as follows.Hyperlipidemia ARIMA（0,2）（0,0）₄,obesity ARIMA（0,0）（0,0）₄,high blood pressure,ARIMA（1,2,1）（0,0）₄,fatty liver ARIMA（0,1）（0,0）₄,diabetes ARIMA（2,1,1）（0,0）₄,All diseases are predicted to fluctuate around the mean value.Conclusion:From 2016 to 2020,the detection rates of obesity and hypertension showed an overall downward trend.The detection rates of diabetes showed a trend of first increasing and then decreasing,while the detection rates of hyperlipidemia and fatty liver showed an upward and downward trend.Primary health services should strengthen the health management of middle-aged and elderly people to reduce the risk of chronic diseases.We will continue to optimize and comprehensively promote the national health examination project,improve the residents’health records and the prevention and control of chronic diseases.