Research On The Temporal Evolution And Driving Factors Of Pig Breeding Efficiency In China

As an indispensable part of animal husbandry,pig breeding industry is not only a key project of vegetable basket project,but also an important way to increase farmers’ income.Since the release of price control in 1992,the internal and external market environment faced by the pig breeding industry has become increasingly complex and changeable.The iterative upgrading of residents’ consumption demand,the tightening of resource constraints and external shocks continues to affect pig production,resulting in violent fluctuations in the pig market.The development of pig breeding industry has both new contradictions and old problems.It is difficult to reflect the long-term change process of its development only by focusing on short-term research and cannot effectively identify the key factors affecting its development.With the increasing complexity and uncertainty of the macroeconomic environment,it is particularly important to analyze the long-term pig breeding.This paper focuses on the following issues.What is the overall level of development of China ’s pig breeding industry in the past 30 years? What is the law and trend of time series change of breeding efficiency? What are the main factors affecting the efficiency of pig breeding in China? What are the differences in the degree of influence of various factors in different regions at different stages? Based on the thinking of these problems,this paper discusses the temporal evolution trend of pig breeding efficiency and its driving factors,in order to answer them one by one.Firstly,based on the annual data of 30 provinces in China from 1992 to 2020,this paper uses the super-efficiency SBM model and Malmquist index to measure the efficiency of pig breeding in China from static and dynamic perspectives.On this basis,the temporal variation law and regional differences of pig breeding efficiency is investigated,and the distribution evolution trend of pig breeding efficiency is analyzed from the national and regional levels by using kernel density estimation.Secondly,this paper uses the Tobit model to analyze the driving factors of pig breeding efficiency at different stages from the national and regional levels.The main conclusions are as follows:First,the overall efficiency of pig breeding in China has not reached the optimal state,showing a stepwise spatial distribution pattern of ’ central-east-west-northeast ’,but the overall development trend is good.In terms of temporal evolution,there are significant regional differences and temporal evolution characteristics in spatial distribution pattern and growth level.Second,the efficiency distribution of pig breeding in China shows an evolution trend from multi-polarization to polarization,and the efficiency distribution in the eastern region shows an evolution trend from multi-polarization to single polarization.The efficiency distribution in the central region shows an evolution trend from single polarization to polarization and then to single polarization.The polarization of efficiency distribution in the western and northeastern regions is weak.In terms of time series evolution,the evolution trend of pig breeding efficiency distribution in different regions of the country is different at different stages.Third,the driving factors of pig breeding efficiency in China are diverse,with significant stage and regional differences.From the national level,the effect of environmental regulation on the efficiency of pig breeding is different at different stages;the degree of scale has a promoting effect on the efficiency of pig breeding at different stages;epidemic impact,pig price and financial development level have inhibitory effects on pig breeding efficiency at different stages.Technological input and labor quality had opposite effects on pig breeding efficiency around 2006.From the regional level,there are obvious stage and regional differences in the effect of the above factors on the efficiency of pig breeding.Based on the previous research conclusions,in order to further improve the efficiency of pig breeding and promote the stable and healthy development of pig breeding industry,this paper puts forward the following countermeasures and suggestions.First,formulate environmental regulation policies according to local conditions;second,encourage scale pig breeding;third,improve the quality of pig farmers ’ labor force;fourth,strengthen the absorption and transformation capacity of technology input;fifth,improve the ability of epidemic prevention and control.