Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Research On Simulation Countermeasures Of Pig Cycle In China

China is the world’s largest pig producer,and China is also the world’s largest pork consumer.The pig industry has an important impact on the development of China’s animal husbandry,agriculture and even the national economy.However,in recent years,while China’s pig industry is facing transformation and upgrading and environmental protection policy constraints,it has also experienced African swine fever epidemic,new crown epidemic and other events,resulting in huge fluctuations in pork prices,and pork prices have soared and fallen,making the pig industry fall into a vicious circle of turbulence and change.This not only has a major impact on China’s pig industry and hinders its normal development,but also has an impact on the stability of China’s national economy.Therefore,in-depth analysis of the characteristics of pork price fluctuations in China and discussion of the influence mechanism of their fluctuations and changes are of great significance for reducing the fluctuation of pork prices in China,stabilizing the pig market,protecting the interests of producers and consumers,and promoting the stable and healthy development of the pig industry.Therefore,this study first analyzes the fluctuation characteristics of pork prices in China since the 21 st century,and on this basis,the pork prices are decomposed in time series to obtain their seasonal fluctuations,random fluctuations,long-term trends and cyclical components.In the long run,pork prices have a rising trend,and have obvious cyclicality,the length of the cycle becomes longer,the fluctuations gradually intensify,and the main contribution to pork price fluctuations is long-term trend and cyclical fluctuations.Secondly,based on the theory of supply and demand,the influencing factors of pork price are analyzed from the two aspects of pork supply and pork demand,which are summarized as: breeding cost,sudden epidemic,producer expectations,scale level,household income level,substitute price,population size and structure,seasonal factors,etc.,and then synthesize the relevant literature,use the ISM model to analyze the relationship between the influencing factors,obtain the hierarchical chart of the influencing factors of pork price cycle fluctuations,and find out the surface factors,intermediate factors and deep root factors affecting pork price fluctuations.Finally,using the system dynamics theory and method,starting from the pork supply,demand and cost side,the causal diagram and system dynamics model of the pork price system are established,the key factors of pork price fluctuation are explored,the changes of pork supply,demand and price are analyzed,and the future pork supply,demand and price are predicted,and a simulation strategy for stabilizing pork price is proposed.Finally,on this basis,targeted policies and suggestions are put forward to stabilize the price of pork in China and alleviate the phenomenon of pig cycle.