Research On The Formation Mechanism Of Pork Price

As a big country in pork production and consumption,the stability of pork prices are crucial for consumers,producers of pigs and the government.A clear understanding and research on the volatility of pork prices in China is of great significance to the relevant departments to introduce corresponding control measures to stabilize pork prices.In order to explore the fluctuation law of pork price,this paper uses seasonal adjustment method and H-P filter decomposition method to study the seasonality,trend and periodicity of pork price,the results show that the seasonal characteristics of pork prices in China are significant and have been slowly rising for a long time.According to the principle of ?Valley-Valley?,pork prices from January 2000 to September 2018 can be divided into 12 cycles.When the pork price trend is in a stable growth phase,the cycle length is 1 year longer;when the price of pork is in the upward phase of fluctuation,the length of the cycle fluctuates greatly.It is necessary for policy regulation to elongated fluctuation period and reduce fluctuation amplitude.Then,we use qualitative method to analyze the causes of the fluctuation of pork price,divide influencing factors into four categories: demand factors,supply factors,economic level and other factors;a pork price impact factor indicator was constructed,the framework includes four primary indicators and 13 secondary indicators.On the basis of impact factor indicator,we use ISM model to analyze the hierarchical relationship between the various influencing factors,find the direct and indirect correlation between the influencing factors,finally,we use ANP to obtain the influence weight of each influencing factors.The analysis of the importance of the factors affecting pork prices shows that among the four indicators that affect pork prices,the demand factor accounts for the largest proportion,and the supply factor is the second;the most critical factors among the secondary indicators are the substitute price,disease,policy and pig stock.Based on the above analysis,this paper proposes countermeasures for substitute price,disease,policy and pig stock,so that pork prices can be effectively stabilized.