Study On The Fluctuation Characteristics And Influencing Factors Of Mutton Price In Shandong Province

Lamb is one of the important livestock products consumed by residents in Shandong Province.With the continuous improvement of living standards and dietary structure among urban and rural residents in Shandong Province,lamb has been welcomed by consumers due to its low fat content and high protein content,and people’s demand for lamb has gradually become strong.However,since 2012,there have been three significant fluctuations in sheep meat prices in Shandong Province in 2012,2015,and 2020,which not only affect the smooth operation of the sheep meat market in Shandong Province,but also affect the healthy and orderly development of the meat sheep industry.Whether mutton can be effectively supplied,whether urban and rural residents can maintain stable consumption,and whether the mutton market in Shandong Province can operate smoothly can all be intuitively reflected through prices.Therefore,studying the fluctuation characteristics and influencing factors of mutton prices in Shandong Province has important theoretical significance,and also provides a practical reference for the government to formulate macroeconomic control policies.This article selects the monthly series of Shandong Province’s lamb prices,pork prices,beef prices,wheat bran prices,soybean meal prices from January 2012 to August 2022,as well as Shandong Province’s currency liquidity indicators and national economic policy uncertainty index from January 2012 to April 2022.Using EVIEWS10.0 software,use Census X12 seasonal adjustment method and H-P filtering method to analyze the fluctuation characteristics and trends of mutton prices in Shandong Province.On this basis,using MATLAB software and TVP-SV-VAR model system,empirical analysis was conducted on the influencing factors of lamb price fluctuations in Shandong Province.The following conclusion is drawn:(1)At present,the overall stock of meat sheep in Shandong Province is showing a downward trend,and the proportion in the country is decreasing year by year;The number of meat sheep sold in the market has rapidly decreased since 2016,and its proportion in the country has also decreased overall;The overall level of lamb production has not changed significantly,and the overall per capita consumption of lamb has maintained an upward trend.(2)The price of mutton in Shandong Province has shown an overall upward trend from2012 to 2022,with a seasonal fluctuation characteristic of "high in winter and low in summer".It is easily affected by irregular factors,and the long-term trend is characterized by "long rise and short fall,large rise and small fall".The cyclical overall trend is shortened,and price fluctuations are more frequent.(3)The influencing factors of mutton price in Shandong Province are mainly divided into four levels: biological mechanism of mutton sheep,market supply factor,market demand factor and externality factor.The biological mechanism will not have a significant impact on the price of lamb,and the supply and demand factors in the market mechanism are the core factors that affect the fluctuation of lamb prices.In addition,externality factors such as policy,institutional and financial factors will also have an important impact on the mutton market price.(4)From the perspective of different lag time pulse responses,pork and beef prices have a significant short-term positive driving effect on lamb prices in terms of demand;In terms of supply,feed prices have a positive impact on lamb prices and a significant lag;In terms of external factors,monetary liquidity has a significant short-term and medium-term positive driving effect on lamb prices,and economic policy uncertainty will have a long-term impact and gradually decrease.From the impulse response at different time points,in terms of demand,pork price has a greater impact on COVID-19 time point,while beef price has a more stable impact;In terms of supply,the corn price at the time of COVID-19 outbreak had a strong impact on the mutton market,which was an important reason for the rise of mutton price in COVID-19 period;In terms of external influences,the impact of monetary liquidity changes weakly at different time points,making it less susceptible to random factors.Economic policy uncertainty has a long-term positive pulling effect on mutton prices at the time of Sino US trade friction,and a slight negative impact on mutton prices at the time of Russia-Ukraine conflict.(5)Suggest improving the breeding technology of mutton sheep and reducing the production cost of breeding;Build an information platform for the lamb market and improve the market warning mechanism;Establish and improve a lamb reserve system to enhance the anti risk capability of the meat sheep industry.