Study On The Production Behavior Of Farmer’s Under Drought And Price Conditions

According to a recent report on the website,extreme weather events such as high temperatures,droughts,catastrophic precipitation,typhoons(tornadoes)and sandstorms occurred frequently around the world in July 2018,bringing extensive impacts on human health,agriculture and ecosystems.The world meteorological organization experts believe that although it is difficult to simply attribute the recent extreme weather to climate change caused by human activities,in the long run,the global trend of extreme heat and precipitation reduction is undoubtedly the result of climate change.For the pastoral areas of Inner Mongolia,the arid climate is a deadly extreme climate,which directly affects the growth,development and yield of forage grass,and then affects the production capacity of grassland animal husbandry.Based on household economics,behavioral decision theory,cobweb theory and disaster economics theory,this paper first drew on the research of domestic and foreign experts and scholars on drought and agriculture and animal husbandry,price fluctuations and decision-making behavior of farmers and farmers.On this basis,the entry point of this project is found.This project mainly studies the production and management decisions of farmers under drought and low price conditions.Secondly,China meteorological science data sharing service network is used to obtain the precipitation data analysis and evaluation trend of the sample region in the past 60 years,and China animal husbandry information network is used to obtain the goat price data of Inner Mongolia in the past 20 years and analyze and evaluate the fluctuation cycle and rule.The data of 260 households in the field survey were divided into poor households and rich households,and Tobit model was used to study the difference between households with different income levels.Under the condition of drought and low price,the livestock outlay behavior is affected by the number of labor force,grassland area,working capital,livestock head number and forage expenses.And the analysis says,The number of head of livestock is the main factor that affects the amount of head of livestock.When the head of livestock increases by 1%,the number of head of livestock increases by 33.74%.The second is the area of grassland,which basically determines the scale of livestock farming.For every 1%increase in the area of grassland,the livestock yield increased by 10.22%.Forage costs and working capital are positively correlated with livestock output.And labor does not have a significant relationship with livestock.In the face of drought and low mutton price,there are differences between poor and rich herdsmen,and the livestock output of poor herdsmen is higher than that of rich herdsmen.Finally,based on the above analysis,the paper puts forward how to better adapt to drought and low price conditions:planting silage.Silage is used by farmers to save the cost of purchasing forage and thus reduce the cost of livestock management under drought and low price conditions.Renting collective or other household grasslands.The dry climate has led to a reduction in pastureland production,which has led to an increase in livestock production costs in order to ensure more forage for livestock intake.Breed improvement.Through variety improvement,we can have stronger competitiveness in the market and improve the disease resistance of sheep.The introduction of good local varieties can improve the performance of sheep production.Adjust the structure.Arid climate and farmer’s low market prices can not be changed,and thus can better adapt to,farmer’s appropriate adjustments in the process of production and management decision-making brutish and herds structure,understands from field survey la shan left flag and Laura left flag part farmer’s choose to change(camel and cow)newborn piggy breeding of other animals,flag,ga part farmer’s choose to raise cattle.