Evaluation Of Resilience And Efficiency Of Agricultural Water Resources Systems In Major Prefecture-Level Cities Of The Yellow River Basin

Agriculture is a basic industry for national economic development,and the efficient and intensive use of agricultural water resources is an important basis for promoting high-quality agricultural development and achieving the macro goals of the national economy.The Yellow River Basin is an important economic zone with high agricultural water consumption but low water efficiency.Transforming the previous crude agricultural water use methods and improving the efficiency and resilience of agricultural water use systems are essential for ensuring food security and promoting the sustainable use of water resources.This study is based on the Yellow River main stream and first-class tributaries.Based on the definition of resilience and efficiency of agricultural water resources systems,this study quantitatively measured the resilience and efficiency in the study area from 2005 to 2019 by constructing a multi-dimensional assessment index system.Using the subjective and objective weighting method,the SBM-DEA model,and combined with GIS to analyze the spatial and temporal evolution of the system.By constructing a quantitative development coordination model,we explore the development coordination relationship between the resilience and efficiency by measuring development degree,coordination degree and coordinated development degree.The Tobit model and the systematic GMM model are used to explore the influencing factors.Finally,we propose relevant countermeasures based on the results.The main conclusions are as follows:(1)Overall,the level of resilience and efficiency of the agricultural water resources system in the study area from 2005 to 2019 is not high,with different characteristics shown in the upstream,midstream and downstream areas.In terms of system resilience,Tai’an,Kaifeng and Liaocheng grew faster,while Jiyuan,Alashan and Jining grew the slowest.In terms of efficiency,Wuhai,Alashan and Xi’an improved the fastest,while Dingxi,Linxia Hui Autonomous Prefecture and Baiyin improve slowly.In terms of spatial differentiation characteristics,the resilience of the agricultural water resources system shows a stepped distribution pattern of upstream,midstream and downstream from low to high.The agricultural water resources efficiency of the relevant prefectures in Gansu,Shanxi and Ningxia is relatively low.The efficiency of prefectures in the remaining provinces is relatively high.(2)From the perspective of the development coordination relationship between the resilience and efficiency of the agricultural water resources system,the development degree shows a trend of rapid growth-fluctuating growth-stable growth,showing a stepwise increasing pattern of ‘upstream-midstream-downstream’.The coordination degree shows a decreasing trend,and the rate of decrease shows an increasing pattern of ‘upstream-downstream-midstream’.The coordinated development degree shows a change from centralized to decentralized with a better direction trend.(3)From the perspective of the main factors influencing the resilience of the agricultural water resources system and the efficiency of water resources use,the level of agricultural economic development,environmental regulation,the speed of agricultural development and water resources management policies have positive impact on the resilience of the agricultural water resources system,while the structure of water resources,the structure of crop cultivation,the construction of water-saving agriculture,the level of science and technology and the level of agricultural economy have positive impact on the efficiency of agricultural water resources use.Based on the above findings,this study proposes measures to improve the resilience and efficiency of agricultural water resources systems in terms of improving the cropping structure,promoting the reduction of pollution and carbon in agricultural water use,and strict management of the water use process.In addition,the study analyses 51 prefectures in the Yellow River basin at a macroscopic scale,but research on agricultural water resources at longer time scales and microscopic scales,such as county units,still needs to be improved.