| Arable land resources are critical for getting food and other agricultural by-products,and their quantity and quality have a substantial impact on food production,helping to ensure food self-sufficiency and security.The Guanzhong region is Shaanxi Province’s largest grain-producing region,and its arable land resources bear the burden of food security in the province,playing a critical role in guaranteeing food security in Shaanxi and the northwest region.As a result,an objective understanding of the state of arable land pressure and food security in the Guanzhong region serves as a reference point for regional food security and arable land resource protection,and is critical for the rational use and protection of arable land resources in food-producing areas as well as national food security.This paper chooses the Guanzhong region as the study area,examines the characteristics of changes in the quantity of arable land resources and grain production,as well as the influencing factors,in the Guanzhong region from 2011 to 2019,and builds a model of minimum per capita arable land area and arable land pressure index,measures the arable land pressure index in six municipalities and 54 counties in the Guanzhong region over the nine years,and investigates the characteristics of changes in the quantity of arable land resources and grain production,and the centre of the gravity model of cropland pressure was also introduced to plot the migration trajectory of the centre of gravity of cropland pressure in the Guanzhong region from 2011 to 2019.Finally,the arable land pressure index in the Guanzhong region is forecasted using a grey GM(1,1)prediction model from 2020 to2024.The results of the study show that:(1)The cropland pressure index in Guanzhong region displayed a fluctuating increasing tendency in terms of time-series variations from 2011 to 2019.Cropland pressure in Xi’an and Yangling District continues to rise,while the cropland pressure index in Tongchuan City gradually drops and the cropland pressure index in Baoji City,Xianyang City,and Weinan City fluctuates above and below K=1 with a generally constant pressure change trend.Overall,food security in the Guanzhong region is in a tight balance,with pressure on arable land reaching a critical state for food security.(2)The spatial distribution of farmland pressure in the Guanzhong region varies greatly.High-pressure zones are primarily found in the southwest and northeast of the Guanzhong region,concentrated in each city’s main urban areas or mountainous hilly areas,such as Beilin District,Weicheng District,Taibai County,and Hancheng City,among others;pressure safety zones and critical zones are primarily found in the northwest and east of the Guanzhong region,mostly in counties and districts with good agricultural infrastructure conditions,such as Linyou County and Yijun County.(3)The spatial unevenness of arable land pressure in the Guanzhong region is evident from the analysis of the trajectory of the center of gravity.9 years,the center of gravity of the arable land pressure index in the Guanzhong region is located in Xianyang city,falling near Liquan and Qian counties,and the overall migration direction is from the central part to the southwest,pointing to Yangling Agricultural High-tech Industrial Demonstration Zone,while the arable land pressure in the southwestern counties is more obviously increasing year by year.(4)Based on the forecast results,the strain on arable land in the Guanzhong region will continue to increase over the next five years,posing a major threat to food security.Arable land resources will continue to decline as the Guanzhong region continues to play a strategic pivot and leading position in the northwest region’s regional economic development,with the arable land pressure index in the Guanzhong region expected to reach 1.66 in 2024. |
