Dynamic Analysis And Prediction Of Cultivated Land Pressure Index In Provinces Of Central China

Food security issues are closely related to the national economy and people’s lives.National survival and economic development are inseparable from the most basic material basis of food.Food security is receiving increasing attention from governments.As an important food producer,China’s food security production has received widespread attention in the world.As a comprehensive resource,cultivated land is the carrier of grain production.A certain amount of cultivated land is the guarantee of grain production.China’s central region is geographically superior,rich in natural and climatic resources,connected with the coastal areas in the east and the inland areas in the wests,with a prominent strategic position,including six provinces,Shanxi,Henan,Anhui,Hubei,Jiangxi and Hunan.Its total area is about 102.8000 square kilometers,accounting for 10.7 percent of China’s total land area,and its population at the end of 2017 was about 368 million,accounting for26.55percent of the country’s total population,China’s central region is an important grain production area,It is an important part of Chinal’s food security strategy and is of great significance to China’s food security strategy.The problem of cultivated land pressure in the central region is attracting more and more attention.Since the central government put forward the strategy of promoting the rise of central China in 2006,the economy of central China has developed rapidly in the past decade.With the development of urbanization and industrialization,It has had an inevitable impact on the area of cultivated land and food security in the central region,and has intensified the contradiction between people and land.In this paper,relevant data such as grain yield per unit area,multiple cropping index and the ratio of grain sown area to total sown area were collected from the six central provinces during 2008-2017,and the grain self-sufficiency rate and per capita grain demand were set.The cultivated land pressure index model was used to calculate the cultivated land pressure index in the central region and the six central provinces respectively,and the GM(1.1)model was used to predict the related indexes of the cultivated land pressure index from 2018 to 2022,in order to discover the related problems and explore the grain production potential of the central region.According to the relevant setting of arable land pressure index k,the arable land pressure index of each province is analyzed.lt is concluded that Shanxi Province and Hubei province belong to the obvious cultivated land pressure area,while Jiangxi province and Hunan province are in the warning area of cultivated land pressure although the index of cultivated land pressure is less than l,but the value is larger,is in the arable land pressure early warning area,Henan Province,Anhui Province arable land pressure is relatively small,On the conclusion that there is no obvious pressure on arable land,Some policy Suggestions were put forward to alleviate the pressure index of cultivated land in central China,such as increasing input in agricultural science and technology,strictly protecting cultivated land,strengthening agricultural infrastructure construction,adjusting grain planting structure reasonably,actively trying new agricultural cultivation mode and optimizing the structure of agricultural employees.