Research On The Influence Of Natural Disasters On The Scale Of Farmers’ Agricultural Investment

Since the beginning of the 21 st century,my country has entered a period of rapid development,with rapid economic growth.It is now second only to the United States and has become the world’s second largest economy.In the process of economic development,the continuous improvement of urbanization has accompanied it.As of the end of 2019,the urbanization rate of the permanent population in my country has reached 60.60%,and a large increase in urban construction land is inevitable,and a large part of the increased area comes from cultivated land.Under the premise that cultivated land is largely occupied and the reserve resources of cultivated land are limited,the rational use of existing cultivated land resources becomes more and more important.In order to ensure the production of agricultural products in my country,maintain national food security,and improve the efficiency of cultivated land use is imperative.In the discussion on how to improve the utilization efficiency of cultivated land,the relationship between the scale of operation and the utilization efficiency of cultivated land has always been a hot issue.It is necessary to clarify the relationship between the scale of operation and the utilization efficiency of cultivated land,and to find the factors that affect the utilization efficiency of cultivated land.In view of this,this article focuses on the relationship between the scale of management and the utilization efficiency of cultivated land,and the influencing factors of cultivated land utilization efficiency.First of all,this article summarizes the literature on the relationship between farmland utilization efficiency and business scale.Based on the theory of return to scale,technical efficiency theory,and production frontier theory,using the collected county statistics,first use the Malmquist index model,The DEA-BCC model calculates the total factor index of cultivated land use and cultivated land use efficiency in Hubei Province from 2008 to 2017,and then compares the performance of different management scale groups.Secondly,it uses cluster analysis and projection analysis to analyze the counties(cities and cities)in Hubei Province,Districts to partition,calculate the redundant amount of input elements,to provide ideas for optimizing the utilization efficiency of cultivated land.Thirdly,use Tobit regression analysis to find the influencing factors of cultivated land use efficiency in areas with different scales of operation;finally put forward corresponding policy recommendations based on the research conclusions.The study found that:(1)The arable land use efficiency of the three scale groups of small,medium and large are0.882,0.883,and 0.928 respectively,showing a trend that the arable land use efficiency increases with the increase of the average household operation scale.The larger the average household operation scale,the higher the arable land use efficiency.High;(2)The total factor productivity index of arable land in Hubei Province declined four times from 2008 to 2017,but the overall increase from 1.043 to 1.052,showing a fluctuating upward state.In the years of decline,it is often accompanied by severe natural disasters and is greatly affected by natural disasters;(3)The redundancy rate of resource input is high,and the effective utilization rate is concentrated between65.29%-76.46%.The effective utilization rate of pesticides,total sown area,effective irrigation area,fertilizer application,total power of agricultural machinery,and agricultural employees are 65.29%,respectively.,74.88%,72.88%,76.3%,77.42%and 76.46%,there is a lot of waste of resources;(4)The area of cultivated land utilization in Hubei Province is quite different,and the influencing factors of different scales of operation are different.Using K-means clustering,it is found that in the first type of area,the utilization efficiency of cultivated land has reached a relatively high level,with a comprehensive technical efficiency of 0.96,and both the pure technical efficiency and scale efficiency are 0.98,with fewer problems;the second type of areas has a higher comprehensive technical efficiency.Low,the average value is 0.74,the average value of pure technical efficiency is 0.79,and the scale efficiency value is close to the frontier of production,reaching 0.94;the three types of areas have the lowest comprehensive technical efficiency,with an average value of only 0.7 and a pure technical efficiency value of 0.97.It has reached a high level,but the scale efficiency is only 0.72.Based on the above conclusions,this article puts forward the following recommendations:(1)Improve the land transfer mechanism,speed up land concentration,and promote various forms of moderate scale operation;(2)Strengthen the construction of farmland infrastructure,improve the ability of agricultural science and technology innovation,and enhance the ability to ensure income from droughts and floods;(3)Use science and technology For guidance,input production elements as needed to minimize element waste;(4)Pay attention to the differences in different types of regions,adjust measures to local conditions,and improve the efficiency of cultivated land use in key areas.