A Research On Chain Propagation Mechanism Of Flight Delay In Air Transport Network Based On Propagation Dynamics

In the current situation of rapid growth of civil aviation traffic in China,airlines have increased their capacity input in order to improve the utilization rate of aircraft.They often arrange the same aircraft to carry out close missions with multiple flight segments.The resulting flight connection and resource sharing lead to a certain invisible relationship among multiple flights,which causes flight delay no longer be an isolated static phenomenon in which several flights do not interfere with each other,but gradually develops into the delay effect formed by several single flight delays spreading through space-time among the relevant flights and airports by taking flight chain or resource chain as a media,and finally develops into flight delay effect dynamic spread from point to line to surface in the entire air transport network.This multi-level delay dynamic cascade propagation effect not only expands the spread scope and influence degree of flight delay,but also aggravates the uncertainty of flight delay disposal and recovery difficulty,as well as restricts the efficiency of flight operations and the improvement of civil aviation service quality.Thus,flight delay is always a major problem that troubles civil aviation work and affects passengers’ satisfaction and acquisition of civil aviation services.Therefore,this paper conducts an in-depth study on the chain propagation effect and dynamic cascade spread mechanism of flight delays in air transport networks.Firstly,starting with the essential rules of delay spread,the delay cumulative amplification effect formed by the relevant flight connection chain or resource sharing chain is described by analyzing the delay formation mechanism and spread rules.The chain relationship structure of delay spread is established according to the multi-level chain reaction of flight delay chain.A mathematical representation model of the change relationship in delay link system structure pattern is established based on analyzing the dynamic response behavior relations and structural characteristics of delay factors in the delay links.Secondly,focusing on the dynamic evolution process of flight delay spread chain system,the dynamic characteristics of flight delay spread are analyzed by dividing the flight delay spread chain system.According to the logical dependence between delay factor chain reaction and flight status dynamic cascade evolution,a flight delay Two-Layer coupled interactive propagation network(Two-layer CIPN)is constructed.On this basis,a delay factor chain coupling propagation dynamics model and a flight status cascade delay propagation dynamics model are proposed.Finally,a flight delay propagation dynamics simulation model is established based on the proposed model by using the Anylogic simulation software.The flight delay spread process of three typical scenarios are simulated,and the efficiency and accuracy of the above model is validated by contrasting experiment results and actual flight operation dynamic.Based on the above,the simulation results of delay factor chain reaction and flight dynamic cascade delay propagation are further analyzed from the two modules of delay factor evolution and flight status evolution,so as to explore the impacts of flight dynamic cascade delay trigger strategies on flight delay spread extent and scope.Therefore,it can effectively contain delay trigger symptom and cut off the dynamic propagation path of flight delay,as well as provide an innovative idea and theoretical basis for effective handling of flight delay in air transport network.