Study On The Impact Of The Opening Of The Northern Sea Route On China-europe Freight

The Arctic Ocean has always been unable to achieve commercial navigation because of its polar region,severe cold climate,and large areas of ice on the sea surface.However,in recent decades,global warming has intensified,and the melting of sea ice in the Arctic has accelerated,bringing the Arctic Ocean navigable closer to reality,and it is expected that the Northern Sea Route will be navigable year-round by 2050.From a commercial point of view,the Northern Sea Route will greatly shorten the maritime transport distance between China and Europe,thus having a huge impact on trade between China and Europe,and will compete with the existing China-Europe transport routes,which are mainly based on the Suez Canal.After the opening of the Northern Sea Route,exploring the impact of the Northern Sea Route on the traditional shipping pattern,clarifying the role of improvement of transportation conditions on trade growth,and the way how trade growth is implemented on different transportation routes,so as to take appropriate measures to give full play to and make full use of the advantages of the Northern Sea Route to promote trade development and the prosperity of shipping business,has become an urgent topic to study.And this thesis is focused on this topic.Firstly,starting from the research background,this thesis sorts and reviews the previous research on the economic and trade potential of the Arctic route and container transportation problem,and then introduces relevant theories of analyzing trade impact and distributing container freight.Subsequently,this thesis uses the global trade analysis model formed under the guidance of general equilibrium theory to quantitatively analyze the promotion effect of the opening of the Northern Sea Route on bilateral trade between China and Europe from five aspects: commodity CIF price,trade volume,GDP,trade volume and trade surplus,and two levels: industrial sector and national region.Finally,this thesis establishes a distribution model of China-Europe trade freight with the Northern Sea Route considered,and discusses the impact of the opening of the Northern Sea Route on the China-Europe transport pattern with case analysis,and further discusses the characteristics of the trade volume stimulated by the Northern Sea Route in transportation routes.The innovation of this thesis is mainly reflected in:(1)The computable general equilibrium model was used to quantitatively analyze the promotion effect of the opening of the Northern Sea Route on China-Europe trade,which improved the limitations of using trade gravity models in most studies to study this problem;(2)After discussing the trade impact of the opening of the Northern Sea Route,this thesis continued to study which route the increased trade cargo went to in transportation,which completed the interaction exploration from transportation to trade and then from trade back to transportation,and provided a reference for how to make use of transportation to promote trade development.