Research On The Methods For Planning Of Emergency Shelter In Villages And Towns And Construction Of Decision Support System

China is one of the countries with the most frequent disasters in the world and is seriously affected by disasters.A scientific layout of shelters can enable the affected people to be evacuated quickly after the occurrence of disasters and minimize the casualties and economic losses.In this paper,in view of the current situation that the number of shelters in villages and towns in China is scarce and the layout lacks a basis for planning,a corresponding study is conducted on the work of site selection and layout optimization of shelters in villages and towns:(1)Considering the characteristics of small scale and sparse population in village areas,the classification and standards of village shelters are proposed by analyzing the density and age structure characteristics of the resident population in villages and towns,and planning technical indicators such as function,service scope and effective shelter area are given.(2)The space and facilities for frequent use in villages and towns were used to explore their potential as shelters.Considering the differences between spaces and facilities,an evaluation system of disaster prevention and evacuation potential is established and corresponding evaluation criteria are given.The index weights were calculated by using hierarchical analysis and entropy weighting method respectively,and the comprehensive index weights were obtained by the improved combination assignment method.Finally,the TOPSIS method is applied to evaluate each shelter.(3)The choice behavior of residents for shelters during disasters was analyzed,and the process was divided into three stages,considering search costs,satisfaction criteria and limited rationality,and a model of choice behavior was proposed based on this.There were four objectives: minimizing the construction cost,the number of shelters,the total evacuation distance,and the number of unserved people.The goal programming method was used to solve the model.By comparing with the traditional system optimal model,the model can significantly reduce the number of unserved evacuees while improving the robustness of the site selection scheme when the other objectives are similar.(4)Based on Arc GIS platform,the author has designed and developed a decision support system for emergency shelters planning with various spatial analysis functions using C# language,which solved the limitation of the licensing problem on Arc GIS Engine technology.The system realizes the screening of candidate shelters,evaluation of disaster prevention and evacuation potential,layout optimization and drawing of evacuation paths.The system effectively couples the shelter planning model with GIS spatial analysis function.The system is functional,simple and intuitive to operate,and provides a reliable decision support platform for the planning and construction of shelters in villages and towns.(5)The planning indexes,evaluation model and site selection method proposed in this paper are systematically applied to the actual case,and the site selection plan and evacuation path are given by the decision support system.The application results show that the planning indexes,evaluation model and site selection method proposed in this paper are well applicable and can give a planning scheme that takes into account fairness,efficiency,cost and science,which provides a model example for the planning of shelters in villages and towns.