Assembly Construction Risk Reasoning Based On GIMB

Assembly-type construction is an important point in the upgrading and transformation of Chinese construction industry,which has the advantages of short construction period,less resource consumption and less environmental pollution.At present,the construction site is mainly prefabricated buildings.Different form traditional cast-in-place buildings,the construction technology of prefabricated buildings is more complex and the construction management is more difficult.However,the development of assembler construction in our country is not mature,the relevant specifications and standards are not perfect,and the engineering experiences and cases for reference are limited.Therefore,the risks existing in the construction phase of prefabricated building are complicated and uncertain.Based on this,this thesis takes the investigation reports ofprefabricated construction accidents in the past 5 years as the research object,and identifies and reasoning their risk factors.It is of great significance to prevent and control the risk ofprefabricated building construction.Fitstly,this thesis made a statistical analysis based on 206 accident reports,and extracts22 factors from five aspects:human,machine,environment,management and law.Secondly,GRA was used to construct gery correlation degree matrix among all factors was determined.The ISM was used to establish the structual model ofstructual assembly construction risk factors.By using MICMAC,the major risks of assembly construction were identified,and the driving force-dependence model of assembly construction risk factors was established.The interpretive stucture model was transformed into Bayesian network,and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and Leaky Noisy-or model were used to solve the conditional probability in Bayesian network to make up for the deficiency of network parameter data.Finally,the postive causal reasoning of Bayesian network by using Netica software can predict the probability of risk occurrence of assembly construction.Through the reverse diagnostic reasoning of this model,the key factors affecting the assembly construction of can be found.Through sensitivity analysis,the risk factors affecting the costruction are determined,and the targeted prevention and control measures of assembly construction risk are proposed.In this thesis,the case of assembly construction accidents as the research basis,accident report as the data source,fully extract the effective information of accident investigation report,analysis of assembly construction accidents and the basic law and the frequency of each factor,and according to the research results,put forward mangement countermeasures,for construction risk prevention and control to prowide a better reference.