| In recent years,with the vigorous construction of expressways,some expressways have the problem of uneven flow distribution.In order to improve the traffic capacity of the road network and reduce the total cost of social travel,the thesis proposes to implement reasonable differentiated toll measures to guide the distribution of freight vehicles,so as to achieve the purpose of balanced utilization of road resources.Furthermore,the SP survey method was adopted to conduct a questionnaire survey and analysis on the three parties,including freight vehicle drivers,expressway operators,and government authorities.The preliminary survey results of the basic situation and travel intentions of freight vehicle drivers were analyzed using the cross-tabulation method in SPSS,and the factors affecting their travel intentions were analyzed.After removing irrelevant items,a formal questionnaire survey was conducted,and the survey results were analyzed and summarized.Additionally,a survey and analysis were conducted on the influencing factors and basic situation of the strategies adopted by expressway operators and government authorities.Secondly,SP survey method is used to carry out questionnaire analysis on freight truck drivers,expressway operators and the government as the main body.Pre-investigation of the basic situation of freight vehicle drivers and travel intentions in different situations,and use the cross-column table in the SPSS to screen the initial survey results.The formal questionnaire survey form is conducted to form a formal investigation,analyzed and summarized the results of the survey;then surveyed and analyzed the influencing factors of expressway operators,government behavior strategies,and basic situations.Then,based on the analysis results of questionnaire surveys,a three-party evolution game model is constructed.According to the game model assumptions and game payoffs,a game payoff matrix is established for the three parties.The thesis then constructs a replicator dynamic equation for the three parties and applies the Friedman theory to determine the stability of each local equilibrium point.Using Matlab software,numerical simulations are performed for each local equilibrium point that can be transformed into an expected payoff equilibrium point.The factors influencing the evolution of strategies of the three-party game are analyzed.Based on the evolution results,the importance of each factor is ranked,and four differentiated toll alternative schemes are constructed based on the importance of these factors.Finally,taking the Xibaipo expressway as an example,the travel transfer of freight vehicle drivers is investigated after the implementation of the four differentiated toll schemes.The transfer probability is used to predict the implementation effects of each differentiated toll scheme.The changes in traffic volume,toll revenue obtained by the expressway operator,and congestion level before and after implementation are compared.Combining the evolution analysis of influencing factors in the game model,a reasonable differentiated toll scheme is selected.By establishing a three-party evolution game model and using state transition probabilities,this thesis obtains a reasonable differentiated toll scheme,providing effective reference for expressway toll policies and achieving the goal of balanced utilization of road resources. |
