Research On The Potential Of Energy Trade Between China And The Eurasian Economic Union

Energy is a resource related to national strategic security.China has a high degree of external dependence on energy,so energy trade is an important part of China’s trade.In 2020,China’s energy import accounted for 90% of its energy trade volume.It is mentioned in the Outline of the 14 th Five-Year Plan for National Economic and Social Development of the People’s Republic of China and the Outline of the Long-term Goals for 2035 "implement the energy and resource security strategy","expand oil and gas import sources in multiple ways,and maintain the security of strategic channels and key nodes".The conflict between Russia and Ukraine and the geopolitical turbulence have an impact on global energy prices.The Eurasian Economic Union with Russia as the core is close to China in geographical location,rich in energy reserves,and the energy production far exceeds the consumption,which is complementary to China in energy factors.The initiative of the “Silk Road Economic Belt”,“21st Century Maritime Silk Road” and the synergistic of the “Silk Road Economic Belt” with the Eurasian Economic Union have promoted the cooperation and exchanges between China and the Eurasian Economic Union.They can make full use of their own advantages to carry out energy cooperation with the help of preferential policies to achieve mutual benefit and win-win results.Based on the above background,the research object of this paper is determined as the energy trade between China and the Eurasian Economic Union,analyzes the current situation of the energy trade between the two sides,constructs a stochastic frontier gravitational model,analyzes the factors affecting the energy trade,and calculates the potential of their energy trade.Firstly,this paper expounds the research background,combs the research status,and determines the relevant concepts.Secondly,based on the data related to energy trade between China and the Eurasian Economic Union from2001 to 2020,this paper qualitatively analyzes the energy status and trade situation between China and the Eurasian Economic Union.Finally,this paper makes an empirical analysis using quantitative method,combined with stochastic frontier function and the expansion of trade gravity model construction of stochastic frontier gravitational model,by introducing variables such as per capita GDP,energy use,per capita income gap,transport costs,tariffs and economic freedom,this paper empirically analyzes the import and export of energy trade between China and the Eurasian Economic Union,and studies the efficiency and potential of energy trade between the two sides on the basis of the regression results.It is found that there is great potential in energy import and export trade between China and the Eurasian Economic Union.Through qualitative analysis,it is concluded that the Eurasian Economic Union is the main source of energy import for China,and its proportion in China’s energy trade is increasing.The empirical analysis shows that per capita GDP,energy use,per capita income gap,foreign direct investment,political stability and other factors have a significant positive correlation with energy trade,while tariff level shows a negative correlation.In addition,the energy trade between China and the Eurasian Economic Union has an import expandable space of nearly six times and an export expandable space of about one time.The import potential is far greater than the export.Finally,combined with the research results,this paper puts forward some suggestions to provide some thoughts for the development of energy trade between China and the Eurasian Economic Union.